Princeton Election Consortium

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Princeton Events – What Happened In The Election?

November 26th, 2016, 2:27pm by Sam Wang


This week at Princeton, I’ll be at two events to discuss what happened in the election, and the uncertain road ahead. Both are open to the public.

Monday November 28th, at 7:00pm. At the Princeton Public Library, I’ll join a panel moderated by Stan Katz, and featuring Ruth Mandel and Charles Stile.

Thursday December 1st, at 6:00pm. In McCosh Hall room 50 on the Princeton University campus, I sit down with Jamelle Bouie, chief political correspondent of Slate magazine. Bouie has written remarkable pieces about the Trump campaign and its relationship to race and politics in America. Here’s one. I look forward to a great discussion.

If you have kids and can’t come out, you might find this relevant: Talking to Young Children about the Presidential Election.

Tags: 2016 Election

12 Comments so far ↓

  • Joel Walen

    Is it possible to create and run a program dedicated to electoral college voting reform? I’m not a stats or computer person, but perhaps someone here could do so? A program that would allow a variety of inputs to show real-world results based on popular vote totals per state. E.g., what happens if the electoral college did not include 2 EV’s per state/per senator? Or, if the college awarded their 2 Senatorial EV’s as winner-take-all, and the remainder proportionally divided based on popular vote? There would be other variables to try, but it would be interesting. I think a great conversation that needs to happen is how the college can better represent popular voting patterns, without completely losing the coalition-building required to build a EV majority. Any reform now seems a long shot, but the conversation needs to be taken seriously, and not just a “keep it/scrap it” proposition in my opinion. So it would be wonderful to have a tool where a variety of inputs could be run against real-world popular votes, and see what differences occur, if any….By my iffy math, it seems HRC needed 279K popular votes to gain 1 EV this year, whereas DT needed 207K popular votes for 1 EV, which would be a 25% variance? (#’s based on current Cook Political Report popular vote tracker). If that’s accurate, it seems in large part a result of the small state-large state compromises built into the college. Are those principles adequate to electoral needs now? I wonder. Anyhow, thanks Dr Wang for this great site, I really enjoy your work here hope you keep it going for a long time.

    • Froggy

      It’s not what you were asking for, but this site is interesting:
      http://kevinhayeswilson.com/redraw/

      It allows you to shift counties from one state to another and see the effect on the electoral vote, just by jiggering with the state borders.

      Limiting myself to only moving border counties, I was able to swing the election in three moves:
      1. Lake County, Illinois, to Wisconsin (turns Wisconsin blue)
      2. Lucas County, Ohio, to Michigan (flips Michigan)
      3. New Castle County, Delaware, to Pennsylvania (flips both Pennsylvania and Delaware)

  • bks

    Pyrrhic victory: It looks like the metamargin (+2.2% HRC) may be right on when all the votes are counted.

    • Sam Wang

      No, the Meta-Margin was always about the Electoral College. It’s definitely off by about 4%.

    • Sam Wang

      and then there is this evaluation of forecast accuracy: https://www.buzzfeed.com/jsvine/2016-election-forecast-grades

    • Matt McIrvin

      But the national popular vote polls may have been right on target! The difference from 2012 is striking.

      What I’d like to know when we have complete numbers is how this election fits into Sam’s long-term analysis of geographic realignment. Obviously something happened in the Great Lakes area, but is it really novel or a continuation of an existing trend? I was thinking the region was trending red even before this year, but not as rapidly as it did. Everything else seems like the basic Obama-era map but with a national move toward Republicans.

    • Matt McIrvin

      Also, there is the dog that didn’t bark: Hillary did not underperform in the West.

  • Ned Knox

    Any thoughts/comments on the recount efforts?

    • 538 Refugee

      Which is more disturbing? A Trump presidency or knowing the elections were tampered with on a large scale?

  • John Delaney

    Will the Post-Election Panel Discussion be recorded / shared via something like Facebook Live or Periscope or Google Hangouts (or whatever they are doing at the moment?) If so, could someone post a link either on the event page or the EC page or ??

    Thank you,
    John