Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from October 11th, 2016

Housekeeping note

October 11th, 2016, 8:40am by Sam Wang

Thanks to all the readers who noticed something wrong with the poll-aggregation rule. It’s fixed now, thanks to rapid response by PEC co-conspirator Walker Davis. I apologize for the glitch.

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Tags: 2016 Election · Site News

Some secrets are not dirty

October 10th, 2016, 9:48am by Sam Wang

Tweet Yesterday, Hillary Clinton’s PEC win probability hit 95%. In last night’s debate, the 2005 candid video of Donald Trump saying what he does with women was still on everyone’s mind. In response, he brought up many topics beloved by Republican rank-and-file voters: Bill Clinton, Benghazi, emails…it was a veritable Greatest Hits of 1996-2016. The likely […]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election

Clinton/Trump: Debate #2

October 9th, 2016, 8:55pm by Sam Wang

For tonight’s town-hall debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, what should be the minimum age for watching? — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) October 9, 2016 My guess is that this will be surprisingly substantive, and less awful than feared. Don’t agree? Think about your fears.

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

How Should Volatility Be Defined?

October 9th, 2016, 9:00am by Sam Wang

Tweet Several of you point out that my analysis of Presidential races 1952-2016 in The American Prospect appears to conflict with an assertion by Nate Silver about this year’s Presidential race. Yesterday he discussed why he thinks 2016 is a year of high “volatility.” In the piece he says that he is preparing a more detailed […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · 2016 Election

The Whitest Swan

October 8th, 2016, 8:35am by Sam Wang

Tweet Probable deeper reason: In the last two weeks, it became clear that there was no chance for Trump to win. At that point, a matter of time. https://t.co/U7PD22TIth — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) October 8, 2016 Today’s estimated Clinton win probability is 93%. The Meta-Margin is Clinton +3.3% and the red one-sigma band, indicating the […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

The Hardened Divide: Why Donald Trump Is Mitt Romney Lite

October 7th, 2016, 1:00pm by Sam Wang

Update: Thanks to today’s Washington Post story by David Farenthold about Trump’s lewd comments about what sounds like sexual assault, we may see a test of my thesis that voters are close to immovable. However, I should point out that the Meta-Margin could go to Clinton +7% and still be consistent with my argument. In The […]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · Politics · President

How Powerful Is Gerrymandering, Anyway? A Conversation With David Daley – Wednesday October 12th in Princeton

October 7th, 2016, 12:01am by Sam Wang

Do you want to move the needle on who controls the House? Use the cool app in the left sidebar to locate competitive House districts near you. Also, use the donation links, which lead to either major party. Democrats will gain seats – but they face a major barrier to gaining a majority. Tonight (Wednesday), […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Redistricting

Politics & Polls podcast #14: The Right To Vote

October 6th, 2016, 8:21pm by Sam Wang

The issue of voting rights in America has been long debated and has changed dramatically since the country was founded. In episode 14, Julian Zelizer and I interview Michael Waldman, author of “The Fight to Vote,” a book chronicling the long struggle to win voting rights for all citizens. Listen!

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Tags: Politics

The paint continues to dry; VP debate comment thread

October 4th, 2016, 9:28pm by Sam Wang

It does not seem likely that much change in the race will come from this debate. However, there is some chance that viewers will learn about the candidates’ positions on issues. Weird, huh? Since reaching high-water marks for Republicans in the third week of September, three measures have moved in the same direction: the generic […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Presidential Debate Question: Gerrymandering

October 1st, 2016, 8:14pm by Sam Wang

Partisan gerrymandering can be done by either party. Currently the net effect heavily favors Republicans. As I wrote in the Stanford Law Review and in the New York Times in 2013 and 2015, gerrymandering has captured a net 10-15 House seats for Republicans since 2012, and dozens more seats in state legislatures. As a result, gerrymandering […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President