Julian Zelizer and I had the pleasure of interviewing historian Rick Perlstein on the subject of the “alt-right.” Fringe movements on the right have been around a long time, and Perlstein has studied these movements deeply, starting with his classic book Before The Storm. It was a fascinating conversation – take a listen.
Entries from September 29th, 2016
September 29th, 2016, 1:10pm by Sam Wang
Like you, I am waiting for polls to come in. A reminder: the following measures will tend to move together: the Presidential Meta-Margin, the Senate Meta-Margin, the House generic Congressional ballot, and President Obama’s net approval. In the last day, the House and Obama numbers have moved toward Democrats. This year’s Presidential campaign has been [...]
September 28th, 2016, 12:12am by Sam Wang
Other than polls, focus groups, betting markets, financial markets, and downcast supporters, everything points to a big Trump win — James Pethokoukis (@JimPethokoukis) September 27, 2016 I have little to say about last night’s debate, except to point out that based on polls of undecided and independent voters, Clinton was seen as scoring a convincing [...]
September 27th, 2016, 4:59am by Sam Wang
Today I head for Longwood University, site of next week’s vice-presidential debate, to talk about election math. If you’re anywhere near Farmville, come out and see what a great temperament I have. Tonight, Jarman Hall, 7:00pm.
Tags: 2016 Election
September 26th, 2016, 8:15pm by Sam Wang
A few days ago, the state-poll-based Meta-Analysis reached an extreme value of Clinton +1.4%. It has turned around, and today went to Clinton +2.4%. I don’t know if this turnaround will continue…but note that this is a pre-debate bounce. Get your panic on.
September 26th, 2016, 12:15am by Sam Wang
Polls are likely to move after the debate. It is the moment when voters get to make a direct, side-by-side comparison of the two candidates. This may also be the last time for any significant shift in the race. Both before and after the debate, pundits will emit opinions about “expectations.” This commentary does not [...]
September 26th, 2016, 12:14am by Sam Wang
Today at 10:00am Eastern, I’ll be on WHYY-FM’s Radio Times with Mary Cummings-Jordan for an hour-long program on polls and the campaign. (Did you miss it? Archived here.) If you’re in the Princeton area, at noon I’ll be giving a talk in the American Politics Seminar. My focus will be this year’s race, polarization, and [...]
September 23rd, 2016, 8:00am by Sam Wang
A bit strange.
September 22nd, 2016, 5:00pm by Sam Wang
The first debate is Monday, Sept. 26, at 9 p.m. from Hofstra University in New York. This first debate could be the most-viewed in our history. (update: yup.) How might these debates influence voters? With presidential polls more favorable to Trump than their average for 2016, which way will they move afterward? Julian Zelizer and [...]
September 20th, 2016, 7:00pm by Sam Wang
In today’s 50-state release of data by Ipsos/Reuters, some have commented on the fact that some individual state results are not convincing. I take a different view: having so many data points at once is a gift.