Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from August 12th, 2016

Housekeeping: probabilities and thresholds

August 12th, 2016, 12:09pm by Sam Wang

I am trying out a new rounding rule on the Clinton win probability. Now rounding it to nearest 1%, not 5%. Gives you something to look at – along with the big jump in the Meta-Margin. For the generic Congressional preference, the displayed threshold for flipping the House is now set to Democrats +6% to [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election

What would it take for the House to flip?

August 12th, 2016, 8:00am by Sam Wang

As I wrote recently, the Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan (R), has raised the possibility that his party could lose its majority in November. This fear can account for a variety of recent political events, including the entry into the presidential race of a total unknown who just happens to be the policy director of [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House

Politics & Polls #7: The Coattail Effect, Gerrymandering & Third-Party Candidates

August 11th, 2016, 2:00pm by Sam Wang

On Politics & Polls (iTunes, SoundCloud, PodOmatic): Donald Trump has attempted to ease tensions within his party by endorsing House Speaker Paul Ryan, Senator John McCain and Senator Susan Collins. But do Republican candidates actually want the endorsement? Could Trump have inverse coattails, and drag other candidates down? Listen to Episode 7! Correction: I referred to the [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election

Can Third-Party Candidates Help Save The Republican Downticket?

August 10th, 2016, 8:36pm by Sam Wang

On Monday, the Princeton Election Consortium got its 10 millionth view since it became a WordPress site in 2008. Traffic in July 2016 was over 50 times larger than July 2012. Thank you, both old and new readers! >>> The Presidential cake is baking. Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump has increased in national polls [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Why follow polls?

August 5th, 2016, 10:00am by Sam Wang

Before the 2016 campaign season, I had reservations about re-starting up this site’s polling analysis. However, there was one big reason in favor of doing it. It has to do with your readership of the site – and how you can best influence the outcome. The biggest reason not to re-start the site was the [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Politics & Polls #6: Data And The Political Media (also, upvote us!!)

August 4th, 2016, 1:50pm by Sam Wang

This week in Politics and Polls, Julian Zelizer and I discuss how data should inform coverage – but sometimes doesn’t. And also the role of storytelling! Also, we try our spiffy new sound setup, which involved sticking my head into a canvas box. Thankfully, there is no video of this. Like what we’re doing? Please [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election

Why is the PEC polls-only forecast so stable?

August 3rd, 2016, 4:30pm by Sam Wang

Brad DeLong explains some mechanics of the ESPN/FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast: Takes recent past polls to estimate a current state of the race… Estimates an uncertainty of our knowledge of the current state… Projects that that current state of the race will drift away from its current state in some Brownian-motion like process… Calculates the chance [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Rigged?

August 2nd, 2016, 1:00pm by Sam Wang

Trump to Hannity: "I'm telling you, Nov. 8th, we'd better be careful, because that election is going to be rigged" pic.twitter.com/FwpMeIiOE1 — Oliver Darcy (@oliverdarcy) August 2, 2016 Three months before the general election, why would a candidate claim that the election will be rigged? Either to foment unrest afterward, or to claim that he [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Post-Democratic convention bounce: 7 points for Clinton

August 1st, 2016, 8:14am by Sam Wang

So far, four five six pollsters have released national surveys using samples taken after the end of the Democratic National Convention, and have data from the post-RNC period. The median swing is a 7.0 ± 1.1 2.0 2.1 % (± estimated SEM) move toward Hillary Clinton. Here are this year’s bounces, added to the previous [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President