Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from August 29th, 2016

The 2016 Senate Forecast

August 29th, 2016, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

Update, August 31: The prior for this model is based entirely on the history of past Senate polling trends: Presidential coattails this year, and “throw the President’s bums out” in midterm years. PEC offers, once again, a pundit-free prediction. The original version of this post is archived here. Close readers of the Princeton Election Consortium [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · Senate

Politics And Polls #9: Top Three Moments of Campaign 2016 (so far)

August 25th, 2016, 5:00pm by Sam Wang

On Politics & Polls (SoundCloud, PodOmatic, and iTunes): Julian Zelizer and I chew over three pivotal moments in Campaign 2016. Also, I finger what I think is one remaining big moment. Hint: rhymes with Mouse of Mepresentatives. Listen now!

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Tags: 2016 Election

Sharpening the Presidential Forecast – summary of comments

August 24th, 2016, 10:00am by Sam Wang

Comments on my sharpening of the Presidential forecast were helpful. The outcome is that I will keep the key new assumption, which is to cap future standard deviation in the Meta-Margin at 3.0%. Since Hillary Clinton’s Meta-Margin (effective popular lead, measured through Electoral College mechanisms) is 6.3%, that means that she is 2.1 standard deviations [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Sharpening the 2016 Presidential Forecast

August 21st, 2016, 2:47am by Sam Wang

Today I present a beta version of the sharpened forecast. In May, I said that I would update the model after the dynamics of this year’s race became clear. Back then, I wondered whether the 2016 campaign would be more like 1952-1992 (high variability), or like 1996-2012 (low variability). This year’s data indicate that it [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

Politics & Polls #8: How To Interpret Polls

August 18th, 2016, 9:36pm by Sam Wang

On Politics & Polls (SoundCloud, PodOmatic, and the slower-to-update iTunes): Julian Zelizer and I offer up a basic primer on how to make sense of the onslaught of polls. What should we think of a really surprising result? Are polling numbers twisting and turning with every week’s news…or are polls the best empirical measure we [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election

The Electoral Strike Zone (technical announcement)

August 18th, 2016, 8:00am by Sam Wang

Here at PEC, the likely range of electoral votes is set by assuming that opinion can drift in either direction, by an equal amount across states; and then converting that swing into electoral votes. This generates the red “strike zone” in the plots in the right sidebar. Today I make a small update.

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

In state polls, Clinton running 5.8 percentage points ahead of Obama 2012

August 16th, 2016, 5:41pm by Sam Wang

There is a lot of media drooling over polls showing Donald Trump cratering in state after state. I find this gloating to be unseemly. Here at PEC, you can do all your gloating in one go, saving time for other reactions, like schadenfreude. Plotted below are median Clinton-minus-Trump margins in all states for which August [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

What do polls and neuroscience have in common?

August 16th, 2016, 10:43am by Sam Wang

Find out in a profile published yesterday on the University’s homepage. Bonus: it may be the only time you will ever find the cerebellum and gerrymandering mentioned in the same article.

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Tags: 2014 Election

Today on The Takeaway: Who Is Evan McMullin, And Why Is He Really Running for President?

August 15th, 2016, 8:15am by Sam Wang

Game Theory Sunday. Today: Why is Evan McMullin running for President? 1) who is he? High-level House GOP staffer: https://t.co/zCxblD9AGo — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) August 14, 2016 Today on The Takeaway, I discuss the impact of Evan McMullin’s entry into the Presidential race. His biggest effect will be downticket, where control of Congress is in [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election

Get PEC pushed to your mobile!

August 13th, 2016, 8:00am by Sam Wang

The Princeton Election Consortium is partnering with StatX to bring to you a way to get our data updates automatically. The StatX app can provide you with all the key outputs on our calculations, updated five times a day: the EV snapshot, current Senate and House estimates, and the Meta-Margins. The app will link back to [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · Site News