Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Senate update

July 20th, 2016, 3:51pm by Sam Wang


Indiana is updated to be Young (R) vs. Bayh (D). Bayh is a massive favorite, and his entry into the race pushes the overall Senate snapshot to a median of 50-50. For calculation of the Senate Meta-Margin, 50-50 ties are counted as Democratic control. You could correct for the possibility of a Vice-President Pence (currently 18% probability) by shifting the Senate Meta-Margin by about 0.2% toward Republicans.

However, such a correction is minuscule compared with the effects of possible movement between now and November. Five Senate races are currently within 3 percentage points: Arizona, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio. This gives a likely range of 48 to 53 Democratic/Independent seats. The outcome of these seats is likely to be strongly correlated with which way the Presidential race moves in the coming months.

Housekeeping: Our Senate polling snapshot is a bit hiccup-y at present. It is being updated manually. We hope to fix that soon.

Tags: 2016 Election · Senate

11 Comments so far ↓

  • Mary McCormick

    Considering how much Mike Pence is hated in Indiana, is there any chance Clinton/Kaine could win in that state?

    • Sam Wang

      Indiana doesn’t allow autodialer polling, so it will take longer than usual to find out. Republicans will probably win, but you never know.

  • Rachel Findley

    What a difference a Bayh makes. At this point in 2014 the polls were showing an average of nearly 51 Democratic-controlled seats; do the polls always shift toward the Republicans, or am I just remembering the big swings?

  • Jay Sheckley

    This household is becoming an infomercial.
    We each confess, “I’m so excited about this +0.4%!”

  • Sophia

    This is my favorite place to go during this election season. I love that I get analytics from someone who is much smarter than me and I get to learn at the same time. I appreciate your comment section for being insightful and free from name calling and negativity. Now this chocolate sommelier is going to open up a nice bean to bar 70% and watch the convention knowing that I can come back here for some reality when it comes to numbers!

  • Erik

    I remember that you had a list of where we could put our donations to maximize them for the senate. Is that contained in the power of one voter list? Or would be possible to identify which states have the greatest impact on Democratic interests to identify which state parties are the best investment?

    • Sam Wang

      That will come soon. Currently concentrating on tweaking the Senate code to be fully automatic.

      For now…under The Power Of One Vote, click on the Senate link. The cutoff point depends on the Power listed in the right-hand column. There are four races that meet the criterion of Power>10: NH, NV, AZ, and OH.

      NC and MO are potentially interesting as well, especially since it is a bit of an open question whether per-vote power is the most relevant parameter. Closeness of margin might matter too, depending on the cost of campaigning in a particular state. That takes more calculating.

    • bks

      Can we get even more leverage? For example, if we could find a key congressional race in Pennsylvania we might be able to get more people out to elect a Democratic congressman, and in turn get more votes for McGinty over Toomey for Senator, and more electoral votes for Clinton.

    • bks

      District 8, say.

    • Telso

      There are four states with at least somewhat competitive races for each of President, Senate and Governor: IN, MO, NC, NH. Some parts of those states will have competitive downballot races too. If you’re looking to put money to good use, voter contact/registration/turnout operations in those states probably give the best bang for the buck.

  • 538 Refugee

    Been waiting for that +1 tic myself. Still a long way out though.