Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from July 30th, 2016

Politics & Polls #5: Courting the Working Class

July 30th, 2016, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

This week, Democrats invoked patriotism, diversity, and strength at their convention. They also made an explicit play for people who typically vote Republican. Among these are white working-class voters. In this week’s Politics and Polls, Julian Zelizer and I talk about what these voters might want. [WWS] [iTunes] [SoundCloud]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

A Local Experiment In Crowd Wisdom

July 29th, 2016, 4:00pm by Sam Wang

(updated 10:10pm) I have finally converted my statistical politics hobby into material gain. Here at Princeton, the Center for the Study of Democratic Politics has announced the winners of its quadrennial election-prediction contest, a game that is open to CSDP and the Princeton community more broadly. Late in 2015, they put out an open call. [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Obama’s convention speech

July 28th, 2016, 2:25pm by Sam Wang

Text just now from a senior House Republican who gave me permission to tweet this: “We were supposed to make that sort of speech." — Erick Erickson (@EWErickson) July 28, 2016 In case you missed it, it’s here. A must-watch speech for members of either party. President Obama is appealing to patriotism and love of [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · Politics · President

Diagnostics

July 27th, 2016, 9:29pm by Sam Wang

The HuffPollster feeds are changing structure to offer more options. We are adapting. Tonight, some routine diagnostics…

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Tags: Site News

Differences between models

July 26th, 2016, 6:17pm by Sam Wang

Some of you ask why various models are currently giving different probabilities. At the moment, everybody’s above 50% probability for a Clinton win, but with varying degrees of certainty. Here at the Princeton Election Consortium we follow a relatively simple procedure to generate (1) a snapshot of conditions today (see the top line of the [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

The polls are always bouncing to the left and to the right

July 25th, 2016, 9:30am by Sam Wang

For those of you not into adolescent pop culture of the 1970s, today’s title is explained at the bottom. Updated to reflect new polls. The bounce is smaller than the original estimate. We have five polls that measure a post-convention bounce for Presidential candidate Donald Trump (R): NBC/SurveyMonkey: steady at Clinton-Trump 46%-45% (July 11-17 to [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Convention bounces in a polarized era

July 22nd, 2016, 9:55am by Sam Wang

Measuring the effect of a particular political event is challenging. Any single poll spans multiple days, and multiple polls are necessary to get good accuracy. National surveys give the first indication, within a week. State polls (upon which the PEC snapshot and forecast are based) are more accurate when aggregated, but take longer. In the [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election

Politics And Polls #4: An Unconventional Convention

July 21st, 2016, 6:34pm by Sam Wang

Politics & Polls #4 (podcast): in which Julian Zelizer and I chew over the convention’s role in shaping the race. Bonus overtime minute: Sam suddenly realizes how the Cruz/Trump smackdown is basically wrestling theater (be sure to click – must-reads from Washington Monthly and Balloon Juice).  Guess who’s the heel? (hint: not Trump.) [Politics & Polls on [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Senate update

July 20th, 2016, 3:51pm by Sam Wang

Indiana is updated to be Young (R) vs. Bayh (D). Bayh is a massive favorite, and his entry into the race pushes the overall Senate snapshot to a median of 50-50.

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Tags: 2016 Election · Senate

Paths of Glory

July 19th, 2016, 10:27pm by Sam Wang

Welcome, New York Times readers! Josh Katz unveils The Upshot’s model for the November election – complete with comparison to other sites: electronic bidders (PredictWise), polls-only (FiveThirtyEight and the Princeton Election Consortium), and professional prognosticators (Charlie Cook, Stuart Rothenberg, and Larry Sabato). Qualitatively, PEC and The Upshot mostly agree, though PEC shows less confidence in [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President