election and gerrymander punchlist – pec2016

2016: Trump 306, Clinton 232 EV Popular vote margin: Clinton +2.1% Final Meta-margin: Trump +0.7% Senate: 48 D/I, 52R
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Protected: election and gerrymander punchlist – pec2016

June 28th, 2016, 9:33am by Sam Wang

Tags: Meta-analysis

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2016 Presidential race

Reducing state-level Presidential polls to a single high-precision snapshot. more
EV and Meta-Margin history Second map is editable
Editable map (Clinton +2%)
Editable map (Trump +2%) (November probabilities - PEC, NYT...)
(Scraped polls in CSV format)

The Power Of One Vote

Senate races
(Presidential race)

State	Margin	Power
NH	Ayotte +0.5%	100.0
MO	Blunt +0.5%	26.1
IN	Tied	22.4
WI	Feingold +1.5%	18.1
NC	Burr +1.0%	13.9
NV	Cortez Masto +4.0%	13.4
PA	McGinty +2.5%	5.8
FL	Rubio +4.0%	2.0
LA	TBD +8.0%	1.9
CO	Bennet +8.0%	0.8
AZ	McCain +12.0%	0.7
IA	Grassley +18.0%	0.3
IL	Duckworth +11.0%	0.2
AK	Murkowski +38.0%	0.2
OH	Portman +18.0%	0.1

(why care about this?) (Details and November probabilities)

2016 House and Senate current conditions
Senate History, 2014
House History, 2014