Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from June 30th, 2016

The Presidential Meta-Analysis for 2016

June 30th, 2016, 9:13am by Sam Wang

As we have done since 2004, we are taking a polls-only approach to give a daily snapshot of the race – as well as a November prediction. This approach has an effective precision of a few tenths of a percentage point of public opinion, and performs very well as both a tracker and a forecast. [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Graph of the day

June 29th, 2016, 12:24pm by Sam Wang

Continuing statistical malpractice at @thehill. Clinton-over-Trump median is holding fairly steady around 5-7%. https://t.co/VoIKMiSkDZ — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) June 26, 2016 On most news days this month, there has been some pointless story about a single poll. Journalists’ instincts to report on the exceptional event are totally inappropriate for following polls, where the median result [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Protected: election and gerrymander punchlist – pec2016

June 28th, 2016, 9:33am by Sam Wang

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

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Tags: Meta-analysis

An online app to diagnose partisan gerrymandering

June 26th, 2016, 11:30pm by Sam Wang

Today, Mark Tengi and I release an online application to help diagnose whether partisan gerrymandering is evident in a set of election results. The application is intended for the use of judges, clerks, litigants, and others who want a statistically well-founded and easily understood test for partisan asymmetry. The Supreme Court has suggested that partisan [...]

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Tags: House · Redistricting

Brexit survey of the day

June 24th, 2016, 4:42am by Sam Wang

Absolutely brilliant poll on Brexit by @YouGov pic.twitter.com/EPevG1MOAW — Tancredi Palmeri (@tancredipalmeri) June 23, 2016 The UK voters who dominated the vote to Leave are also the ones who have to live with the outcome for the least amount of time. And then there is this fascinating essay in Dissent magazine, which describes two Englands: [...]

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Tags: United Kingdom

Brexit polls microscopically favor Remain

June 23rd, 2016, 11:00am by Sam Wang

Today, the UK votes on a referendum on whether to Remain in the European Union, or to Leave. In polls started since June 16th, the current median is Remain +1.0 +/- 1.8% (n=7; median +/- estimated SEM; probability of a lead among decided respondents=70%). Where a single pollster conducted multiple polls in the last week, [...]

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Tags: United Kingdom

The Takeaway – today!

June 16th, 2016, 8:46am by Sam Wang

Today on The Takeaway, John Hockenberry and I discuss whether a realignment is brewing (spoiler: probably not). On WNYC-AM at 9:00am Eastern, WNYC-FM at 3pm. Broadcast nationwide, and here is the recorded podcast.

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Tags: 2016 Election

How behavioral science could help get more Americans to vote

June 15th, 2016, 9:03am by Sam Wang

My latest, in the Washington Post.

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Tags: Politics

Pardon our mess…

June 9th, 2016, 4:23am by Sam Wang

A fair amount of construction is going on around here. There may be a few bumps along the way. For example, right now we’re tweaking the banner (until now it was updated manually). Starting this summer, I am on the lookout for a new partner in running PEC, as Mark Tengi moves on from Princeton. [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election

The Second Phase of Realignment: 1976-2012

June 5th, 2016, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

Shifts in American political geography (“realignments”), which I wrote about on Thursday, can be viewed at a glance using the following diagram. It allows us to see just how little change there has been in recent years – including 2016 so far.

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President