Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from May 31st, 2016

State-poll snapshot: Clinton 336, Trump 202 EV; Meta-Margin +4.2%

May 31st, 2016, 10:32am by Sam Wang

Thanks to Brad DeLong, who has collected some of my oldies from January 2016. Back then, I outlined how polling data and Republican party rules pointed clearly toward a Trump nomination. Here at PEC we are ramping up slowly. In the top banner is a preview of the main product: a snapshot of state polls. [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Nomination rules and November nerdery at the NYT

May 25th, 2016, 9:57am by Sam Wang

In the New York Times, an article about the Republican Party considering changes to its nomination rules process to eliminate “chaos,” which I think is a code word for “Trump.” However, my quick scan does not reveal any proposed changes that would solve their Trump problem. As I wrote last July in The New Republic, [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

February national polls are the best you get until August

May 22nd, 2016, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

Tuesday 5/24, 8:20am: in the comments, an interesting discussion here. Every election is different from every other! Every poll must be reported as a unique game-changing event!! Or… https://t.co/xFSUXpn5mR — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) May 22, 2016 Some media types are going around with their hair on fire over two unfavorable polls for Hillary Clinton in [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Advance Voter Registration: The King of Behavioral Interventions?

May 21st, 2016, 7:56am by Sam Wang

Pro-voting activists are constantly trying to increase the rate of voting. They often get interested in behavioral interventions such as voter contact. Successful interventions typically boost turnout by a few percentage points. More generally, the smallness of any get-out-the-vote’s effort means that I don’t have to account for it in any of the polling analysis [...]

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Tags: Politics

Nate Silver mostly puts his finger on what happened

May 18th, 2016, 1:09pm by Sam Wang

I think journalists have missed the point about Nate Silver’s error. Since Silver personifies data analysis, it is easy to get mixed up about what failed. As I wrote last week, the data didn’t fail – clear signs pointed toward Trump for a long time. However, Silver went beyond the data – in his words, [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Trump expands the battleground…to Utah and the Deep South

May 9th, 2016, 8:22pm by Sam Wang

  Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com Historically from 1952 to 2012, the likely range of movement in two-candidate margin from this time until Election Day has been 10 percentage points, which is the standard deviation from the 16 past elections. Therefore, even though Clinton currently leads by a median margin of [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Among Republicans, Trump supporters have slightly lower incomes. But what really differentiates them?

May 7th, 2016, 1:39pm by Sam Wang

First, the news clips. At The New Yorker, John Cassidy digs further into the question of data journalism vs. data punditry, and cites PEC favorably. He thinks data journalism is at its best when it isn’t trying to make predictions, but helps us understand what is happening now. I mostly agree with that, though I [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Did data journalism lose – or just data pundits?

May 5th, 2016, 10:51pm by Sam Wang

I see in today’s New York Times a column critiquing journalists on their coverage of the Republican primaries. Overall it’s a good piece, but one statement pops out: “data journalists have screwed up this year.” This comment misses an important point. The people who have come under criticism are actually a hybrid of journalist and [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election

What head-to-head election polls tell us about November

May 1st, 2016, 3:08pm by Sam Wang

Note: I have found a problem with this calculation. The national-poll-based Clinton win probability is closer to 70%. I will have an update and explanation soon. Obama: "Next year someone else will be standing here in this spot, and it's anyone's guess who she will be." #WHCD pic.twitter.com/XVFxZUzKeJ — Huffington Post (@HuffingtonPost) May 1, 2016 [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President