Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from April 18th, 2016

GOP update, pre-New York

April 18th, 2016, 3:59pm by Sam Wang

Tomorrow New York votes. This is a critical race in the Republican primary campaign. Above is a final snapshot, based on polls and voting patterns to date. This calculation gives a median Trump outcome of 1265 pledged delegates (interquartile range or IQR, 1210 to 1305 delegates). The probability of getting 1237 or above is 64%. [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

“Momentum” and the Wannabe Physicists at Meet The Press

April 14th, 2016, 3:40pm by Sam Wang

.@realDonaldTrump's path to the GOP nomination got a little narrower after @tedcruz's win in Wisconsin. https://t.co/5B1zmMjpoF — Meet the Press (@meetthepress) April 6, 2016 In political reportage, the word “momentum” is nearly worthless. It gets used whenever a candidate wins a race or gets a favorable poll. As far as I can tell, a working [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Current Polls Favor A Trump Delegate Majority

April 9th, 2016, 4:59pm by Sam Wang

This week in the Republican nomination race, Ted Cruz’s win in Wisconsin triggered buzz about how front-runner Donald Trump might be in trouble. Doubtless today’s win in Colorado will intensify the chatter, and will involve words like “momentum.” It is best to ignore all of that coverage – at least until some national polling data shows [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Princeton University: Woodrow Wilson report

April 4th, 2016, 10:03am by Sam Wang

Today, Princeton University releases its report on Woodrow Wilson’s legacy. You can read it here. Here’s the news release. One bottom line: the Woodrow Wilson school will retain its name. My own view is that we as a community can’t run away from his segregationist views – nor would it be the best option to [...]

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Tags: Princeton