Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from March 9th, 2016

How surprising was the Sanders win in Michigan?

March 9th, 2016, 10:15am by Sam Wang

On both sides, last night’s elections kept both front-runners, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, on track for the nomination. Nothing’s changed. They should both get a majority of delegates, with probability over 90%. The slight lead for Sanders in Michigan doesn’t affect the overall dynamic.

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Hawaii/Idaho/Michigan/Mississippi primaries

March 8th, 2016, 1:00am by Sam Wang

Today, both parties vote in Michigan and Mississippi. In addition, Republicans vote in Hawaii and Idaho. Overall, support for Trump, Cruz and Rubio in today’s states parallels national opinion, so voting in these races should be representative of the weeks ahead (though note that races soon shift toward winner-take-all rules). On the Republican side, in [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Overachiever

March 6th, 2016, 5:28pm by Sam Wang

In Saturday’s Republican elections, Ted Cruz outperformed his pre-election polls in all three states where data was available: Kentucky, Louisiana, and Kansas. This is in contrast with Donald Trump, who performed within 1-2 percentage points in Kentucky and Louisiana…but underperformed by a remarkable 12 percentage points in Kansas. What’s going on?

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

This weekend’s primaries: More of the same?

March 5th, 2016, 2:15pm by Sam Wang

Update: a surprise in Kansas, whose primary is closed to independent voters. Cruz is winning with 51%, outperforming expectations by over 20 percentage points. That’s a spot where the paint isn’t drying the way I expected. Overall, though, results are consistent with previous primaries and caucuses: spots of strength for Cruz, and Rubio lagging in third [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Post-election poll evaluation (preliminary)

March 2nd, 2016, 6:39pm by Sam Wang

Post-Super Tuesday analysis is delayed a bit because of foreign travels. A preliminary look:

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Super Tuesday thread #4 – Apocalypse

March 1st, 2016, 11:30pm by Sam Wang

(See open thread #1 – I am traveling. These are prewritten posts. Follow returns at HuffPollster.) Let the meltdown commence. Good night!

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Super Tuesday thread #3 – will the Mule strike?

March 1st, 2016, 9:00pm by Sam Wang

(See open thread #1 – I am traveling. These are prewritten posts. Follow returns atHuffPollster.) Above is the delegate estimate from my simulations of GOP rules. Barring a surprise attack by The Mule, it shouldn’t be that far off. Let me know in comments!

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Super Tuesday open thread #2 – Hillary’s night

March 1st, 2016, 7:00pm by Sam Wang

(See open thread #1 – I am traveling. These are prewritten posts. Follow returns at HuffPollster.) 7:00pm: Journalists already have entrance/exit poll data, but this early in the evening, they usually  do not quote it directly. They may start hinting how it’s Hillary Clinton’s night. Wins and losses will be used as a shorthand to follow [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Super Tuesday open thread #1 – Hari Seldon edition

March 1st, 2016, 2:00pm by Sam Wang

Follow the evening’s results at the HuffPollster primary page. The calculation below, made in January, still applies under current conditions for today’s election. For people who watch polls closely, many outcomes are foregone conclusions. We ignore the big wins, and instead look at the close races and the spots of genuine suspense that remain. Sometimes those races [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President