I have a new analysis at The American Prospect. Basically, it is in Trump’s interest to avoid the situation shown below.
Details of the model and additional comments to come. In the meantime, morning reading: (1) an excellent piece by Jamelle Bouie on Trump’s appeal to white voters, and (2) some data analytics at the Upshot on county-by-county correlates of support for Trump. Notable, at #2: ethnic self-identification as “American.”
Update: Twitter follower W. Dow Rieder points out the optimal anti-Trump strategy for Kasich: win Ohio, then drop out for later primaries where he is behind. Basically, this is Romney’s advice taken to an extreme. It has the highest likelihood of holding both Trump and Cruz below 50% of delegates each.