Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from March 28th, 2016

High accuracy of aggregated Democratic polls

March 28th, 2016, 3:00pm by Sam Wang

Are Democratic primary polls accurate? In individual states they are good, with a few exceptions. At an aggregated level, they are remarkably accurate. The delegate-weighted polling margin has a total error of 3.1%. This is better accuracy than one would expect from the reputation of polling these days. The overall error is also not nearly [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

No path for Sanders…but it’s a long one

March 26th, 2016, 11:55pm by Sam Wang

“We have path toward victory,” Sanders tells cheering supporters in Madison, WI, touting big victories in AK, ID, UT. — Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) March 26, 2016 One thing Sanders understands well is the need for a horserace. Without that, he and his principal issue, economic inequality, won’t get covered. It is possible to put a [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Slow news month ahead?

March 26th, 2016, 1:03pm by Sam Wang

I’m on a low-posting regimen for a little while. Basically, I think the Democratic and GOP primaries are settled. That said, why don’t you comment on which of the following would be most interesting:

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Data scraping help (thank you!)

March 24th, 2016, 8:43pm by Sam Wang

Anyone care to help me extract some Wisconsin State Assembly results from this database? I am applying this proposed gerrymandering standard to this Common Cause challenge. [contact Sam] (Update: thanks to several readers, Steven Schuster from Colgate and Bror Jonsson here at Princeton, for the help. It’s under control!)

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2006 Elections · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2014 Election · 2016 Election

John…you didn’t have to get me anything!

March 22nd, 2016, 9:22am by Sam Wang

See the updates. Trump and Cruz won Arizona and Utah outright. Overall, a subpar performance by Kasich. No gifts today. Today, John Kasich potentially gives the first of a series of gifts to Donald Trump. What’s inside the box? Maybe 58 delegates – from Arizona, which is winner-take-all.

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Mitt Romney, game theory expert

March 19th, 2016, 7:34am by Sam Wang

John Kasich has a very narrow path to maximizing his chances for the Republican Presidential nomination (or a suitable consolation prize). However, it involves exercising self-restraint – and listening to the advice of that expert user of game theory, Mitt Romney. Politicians can be excellent rational actors. This week, Mitt Romney urged Republican voters to [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

CNN with Smerconish today at 6:30pm Eastern

March 19th, 2016, 7:33am by Sam Wang

Rebroadcast from 9:30am. Watch me attempt to explain this diagram.

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Sam Wang in Ohio – today at 3:00pm, Cincinnati

March 16th, 2016, 8:01am by Sam Wang

Usually I wait for the data to come to me…but today I am in Cincinnati, Ohio. Come see me! Today at 3:00pm, I give a public lecture just across the river at Northern Kentucky University. It’s open to the public. I will probably tell the Ohio voters in the audience that if they voted for [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Primary discussion thread – All About Kasich edition

March 15th, 2016, 6:13pm by Sam Wang

.@SamWangPhD’s analysis of Trump’s delegate advantage https://t.co/c7l5UOKJxu gets mentioned on @MSNBC pic.twitter.com/jzbBHhjTI6 — American Prospect (@theprospect) March 15, 2016 Tonight, on the GOP side: Florida (99 delegates, Trump by +19%), Illinois (52 delegates, Trump +8.5%), Missouri (52 delegates, Trump +7%), North Carolina (72 delegates, Trump 46%, Cruz 30.5%, Kasich 11.5%, Rubio 7.5%), Ohio (66 delegates, [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Is it in Donald Trump’s interest to win Ohio?

March 14th, 2016, 8:04am by Sam Wang

I have a new analysis at The American Prospect. Basically, it is in Trump’s interest to avoid the situation shown below. Details of the model and additional comments to come. In the meantime, morning reading: (1) an excellent piece by Jamelle Bouie on Trump’s appeal to white voters, and (2) some data analytics at the [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President