Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from February 10th, 2016

GOP rules update: An escape route closes for the Establishment

February 10th, 2016, 5:37pm by Sam Wang

In my calculations of the GOP nomination process, I constructed a simulation of the many rules between now and Super Tuesday. I had assumed that each state’s party officials – 3 delegates per state – were “superdelegates,” not bound by the election result. They would be free to vote as they liked. Although they are [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election

New Hampshire vote-counting thread

February 9th, 2016, 7:30pm by Sam Wang

Follow results at the Huffington Post or the Guardian (great coverage there). Open thread.

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Tags: 2016 Election

New Hampshire: Kasich and Rubio lead a scramble for distant second

February 9th, 2016, 1:00am by Sam Wang

In five polls conducted February 4-8 that include data from the 7th and 8th, after Saturday’s debate, undecideds show up as 8 percent of GOP voters. About 50% of the respondents were reached after the debate. These people aren’t able to express their candidate preference to a pollster, but they do have pretty much all [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election

Symposium on the Law of Democracy – Stanford Law Review

February 7th, 2016, 6:03am by Sam Wang

This weekend I attended a symposium on the Law of Democracy at Stanford University. The schedule is here. The list of attendees and presenters included Stephen Ansolabehere, Nate Persily, Charles Stewart III, Jane Schacter, Bertrall Ross, Sam Isaacharoff, Heather Gerken, Rick Hasen, Robert Bauer, Ben Ginsberg, Richard Pildes, Bruce Cain, Maggie McKinley, Rabia Belt…this is quite [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election

The post-Iowa bounce goes to…Hillary Clinton

February 6th, 2016, 12:54pm by Sam Wang

Update, post-primary: Sanders outperformed his final New Hampshire polling margin by about four percentage points. That is interesting, but not out of bounds. It may reflect the difficulty of polling an open primary. It remains obviously true that Iowa did not have effects of a size to affect the likelihood of a Sanders win in [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election

On GOP side: Trump level in N.H., Rubio moves up, Kasich catches up with Cruz

February 6th, 2016, 8:51am by Sam Wang

In New Hampshire, Donald Trump is right where he’s been since August. In seven polls done February 2-4, he is at a median of 29.0 ± 1.4 %. He was rising in late January, but that came back down after the Iowa caucuses on February 1. So he’s stuck…in first place.

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Tags: 2016 Election

Consequences of Iowa: Trump still strong, new life for Rubio, long-term trouble for Sanders

February 2nd, 2016, 1:21am by Sam Wang

My preliminary take on the Iowa caucuses is that they didn’t alter the trajectory of where things are probably headed for the Democrats: Hillary Clinton is still favored. However, the Republican field could potentially narrow to a three-way race (Trump-Cruz-Rubio) sooner than I had expected, thanks to a strong showing by Marco Rubio.

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Tags: 2016 Election

Iowa discussion thread

February 1st, 2016, 7:50pm by Sam Wang

Follow the returns at HuffPost, the New York Times, and Red Racing Horses. “Will Marco Rubio come in a strong third, or a weak third?” That was an actual pundit question. Data-ish punditry welcome below. >>> 12:09am, Tim in CA: “Iowa and New Hampshire may represent a high water mark for Sanders. And in the case of [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election

What To Look For in the Iowa Caucuses

February 1st, 2016, 9:05am by Sam Wang

(updated since January 29th) After the mindnumbing levels of coverage over the last year…the first actual voting of the primary season finally starts tonight, with the Iowa caucuses. To answer the simple horserace question, Donald Trump seems positioned to come out on top on the Republican side, as is Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side. [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election