Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from February 29th, 2016

Tonight on MSNBC with Lawrence O’Donnell

February 29th, 2016, 6:52pm by Sam Wang

Tonight I’ll be on MSNBC’s The Last Word with Lawrence O’Donnell to talk about Super Tuesday – and beyond to the November election. We’ll start around 10:20. Other guests include David Corn and Tavis Smiley. Tune in! Postscript: clip here. (The plot above shows the predicted relationship between the Republican front-runner’s level of support and [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Bernie Sanders’s canary in the coal mine: Massachusetts

February 29th, 2016, 10:00am by Sam Wang

Tuesday’s Democratic Party primary states are unusually favorable for Hillary Clinton. The left side of the graph above shows Democratic polling percentages, weighted by the number of delegates. On the right are national poll medians. Where possible, the data come from poll samples of February 22 or later. Clinton’s Super Tuesday margin is about 15 [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

The cake bakes – is Rubio cooked?

February 27th, 2016, 5:05pm by Sam Wang

(delegate calculation corrected 2/28) (See the comment by MAT on how both Democrats and Republicans benefit from a brokered Republican convention.) Until recently, the most likely way to give someone other than Donald Trump a majority of delegates was to narrow the field of candidates drastically. But the Republicans didn’t do that in time for Super [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

South Carolina (D) primary – open thread

February 27th, 2016, 5:04pm by Sam Wang

[HuffPollster results page] Be nice to the Sanders supporters. Tonight starts what might be a challenging week for them. 10:00pm: Wow, Clinton really overperformed. Polls showed her ahead 62%-25%, but she is winning 74%-26%. This might be an example of what I wrote about back in 2008 (“The Exuberance Of Likelier Voters“). When a win [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

President Obama lays out his views on Supreme Court nominees

February 24th, 2016, 9:17am by Sam Wang

Over at SCOTUSblog, the President discusses his views on what he looks for in a Supreme Court nominee. This is an initial shot, aimed at the legal elite. The Republicans on the Senate Judiciary Committee have pre-emptively refused to consider any nominee, an unprecedented move. My guess is that if the summer’s Senate and Presidential [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

South Carolina (R) / Nevada (D) open thread

February 20th, 2016, 8:15pm by Sam Wang

Follow results at the Huffington Post [SC-R] [NV-D] or the Guardian (great coverage there). Open thread. My comments below. 10:40pm: I think the cake is close to baked. Actually, two cakes. Cakes…the picture above, which comes from one of the Donald’s weddings, seems appropriate.

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

S.C.: After Haley endorsement, Rubio pulls even with Cruz; pressure on Bush?

February 20th, 2016, 5:43am by Sam Wang

(Guardian coverage) It seems likely that Donald Trump is headed for another win today – but a closer one than I would have expected even a few days ago. In 4 polls taken February 16-19*, the medians are Trump 33%, Rubio 20.5%, Cruz 18.5%, Bush 9.5%, Kasich 8.5%, Carson 6%. Rubio may do even better [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · governors · President

In South Carolina, Trump could win all 50 Republican delegates

February 16th, 2016, 9:45am by Sam Wang

(Updated February 17th to include post-debate data. The conclusions are unchanged.) The Republican primary in South Carolina is this Saturday, February 20th. Donald Trump continues to lead the pack, with 36 percent support in four post-N.H. surveys 34 percent support in two surveys done after last Saturday’s debate. His closest competitor is Ted Cruz, Marco [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

On the passing of Justice Scalia and this year’s voting rights cases

February 14th, 2016, 10:04am by Sam Wang

An underappreciated fact about the U.S. Supreme Court is just how often its decisions are unanimous, or nearly so. In past years, the two justices who disagreed the most often were Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Samuel Alito – and even then, they only disagreed about one-third of the time. Above is a visualization of “disagreement [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Redistricting · Senate

The GOP’s deadline problem

February 11th, 2016, 3:31pm by Sam Wang

Given the results in Iowa and New Hampshire, as well as national polls, if the Republican front-runner were a more conventional candidate we would be writing about near-inevitability. Donald Trump is in a very similar position to Mitt Romney’s at this point in 2012 – if anything, a somewhat stronger position. In 2012 Romney lagged at [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election