Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from January 30th, 2016

On CNN w/Smerconish today, 9:30am Eastern

January 30th, 2016, 8:35am by Sam Wang

…to talk about Iowa and beyond. Tune in! (Update: here it is.)

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Tags: 2016 Election

May I just sign off until summer?

January 27th, 2016, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

May 5, 2016 – I never let this go live. Instead I kept writing. I have little willpower! I am publishing this for entertainment, and for the record. – Sam In the two major parties, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are in very strong positions. At >40% levels of support, 6 out of 6 Republican [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election

Thoughts on Faulty Priors

January 22nd, 2016, 9:15am by Sam Wang

Update: Reader Sourav takes a different view: “In this age it is hard for a Black Swan event to happen without any indication….People touting the ‘But Herman Cain was ahead this time 4 years ago’ theory were misreading the data. No one in 2012 had a consistent lead for so long. Trump has been the most [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election

The Semicentennial Upheaval

January 18th, 2016, 9:07pm by Sam Wang

About every fifty years, a major U.S. political party undergoes an upheaval. It’s graphically represented here by Randall Munroe, in what may be his finest chart. Molly Ball asks whether we are witnessing such an upheaval. A fine piece of reporting in The Atlantic. From comments, Kevin says:  The problem with the upheaval theory is [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election

Presidential candidates ranked according to their usefulness in a bar fight

January 15th, 2016, 11:31pm by Sam Wang

…because it’s Friday night. Time for a break from serious analysis. Instead, some drinkin’ and brawlin’. Check out this amazing list from BitterEmpire.com.

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Tags: 2016 Election

Under GOP rules, 30% before Iowa/New Hampshire implies a delegate majority: Simulating the “proportional” rules

January 13th, 2016, 2:24pm by Sam Wang

Since late December, polls have become predictive enough to point toward Trump as the eventual nominee. New in The American Prospect, I give a detailed analysis of the GOP Presidential delegate-assignment process. This analysis includes a simulation of how vote share translates to delegate share. My principal conclusion is that if his current levels of [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election

PEC readers chat about the GOP nomination

January 10th, 2016, 3:11pm by Sam Wang

I don’t have the financial resources of ESPN/FiveThirtyEight. But I do have you, my dear readers! Let me cut-and-paste some of your recent remarks into a PEC chat. Edited for flow. Add your own two cents in the comment thread.

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Tags: 2016 Election

Does Trump’s ceiling matter?

January 7th, 2016, 9:55am by Sam Wang

Today, Ross Douthat quotes my post yesterday about Donald Trump’s current strength. He also says Trump is doomed because he will hit a ceiling of support around 30%. But even if that ceiling holds, it might not matter – because of how delegates are chosen.

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

The predictive value of GOP Presidential polls

January 5th, 2016, 10:30pm by Sam Wang

Tweet // < ![CDATA[ !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’); // ]]>The New Year is not a bad time for a fresh start. So please let me acknowledge that back in July, I was too pessimistic about Donald Trump’s chances. Like Harry Enten, I was led astray by his high unfavorables. Six months into the Season of [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

Siberia

January 1st, 2016, 9:00am by Sam Wang

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Tags: Meta-analysis