Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from September 30th, 2015

Happy No-Government-Shutdown Day!

September 30th, 2015, 10:42pm by Sam Wang

The U.S. Congress has reached the point where not shutting down the federal government at the start of a new budget year is considered an accomplishment. Wow. The other day, Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo asked his readers for their favorite government shutdown. My favorite shutdown is the original acts of partisan brinksmanship in [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election

What does probability mean to a journalist?

September 25th, 2015, 5:23pm by Sam Wang

From Math with Bad Drawings comes this gem, depicting what probability means to a political journalist. “The threat is real.” Heh. There’s a whole series of such drawings. Check them out!

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Tags: 2016 Election

In time for the equinox, is the Summer of Trump waning?

September 21st, 2015, 1:59pm by Sam Wang

In time for the autumn equinox on Wednesday, the Summer of Trump is waning. Surveys are now out with samples entirely postdating GOP debate #2. Taking a median of the last 4 pre-debate polls gives Trump 33.0±0.7% (estimated SEM). Then, in the last 4 pre-debate polls, Trump is now at 26.5±3.0%. The combined uncertainty (sigma) is [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election

GOP debate #2 open thread

September 16th, 2015, 6:34pm by Sam Wang

Step 1: Turn on CNN. Step 2: Refer to Matt Taibbi’s Debate Drinking Game. Step 3: Comment! Open thread.

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Tags: 2016 Election

Trump 1st+2nd choice reaches 50%; Carson least upsetting

September 10th, 2015, 9:07am by Sam Wang

As #CPAC opens…Ben Carson has good will among GOP primary voters. Might have a better shot than most of the field http://t.co/oa3UVCKjA2 — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) February 26, 2015 This is interesting, from CNN/ORC: those who list Trump as their first choice added to those who list him as their second choice now add up [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election