Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from July 20th, 2015

Is Donald Trump Really The Frontrunner?

July 20th, 2015, 1:18pm by Sam Wang

Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’);Conventional horserace polls put him in first or second place. However, these single-choice polls are a terrible way to tell who is likely to make it in a field of 16 candidates. Today in The New Republic, I argue that horserace polls are asking the wrong question. Instead, a more elaborate [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election