Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from May 13th, 2015

Train travel is incredibly safe

May 13th, 2015, 9:08am by Sam Wang

Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’); Television “news” media, as is often the case, is good at blowing an event out of proportion. In the wake of the Amtrak train crash (and hey, I am totally against train crashes!), we have this: 230 people killed in train accidents in the last year alone. Very scary. — [...]

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Tags: Uncategorized

The other UK losers: pollsters, Liberal Democrats, and 50% of Scots voters

May 9th, 2015, 9:34am by Sam Wang

Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’); (reanalyzed data from Lord Ashcroft’s post-election poll) Contrary to all pre-election polls, the Conservatives won an outright majority, with 329 out of 650 seats. The final popular vote was 37% for Conservatives, 31% for Labour, where a near-tie was predicted. But the Labour Party was not the only loser on [...]

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Tags: United Kingdom

What to watch in tomorrow’s UK election

May 7th, 2015, 12:22am by Sam Wang

Michael Mosettig explains it well. I cannot improve on what he says. Go read that. Then follow live returns here and projections here. Current projections by electionforecast.co.uk indicate considerable losses by the two ruling parties, the Conservatives (281 seats) and the Liberal Democrats (27 seats). With a current forecast total of 308 seats, these two parties [...]

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A look back at poll aggregation, 2004-2014

May 6th, 2015, 1:11pm by Sam Wang

My article on Presidential poll aggregation is now published, in the International Journal of Forecasting. You can read it here. It’s part of a special issue on Presidential forecasting; when I have the other articles I will link those as well. Read about the origins of a rather odd hobby!

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