Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from April 25th, 2015

Help with district-partitioning calculation?

April 25th, 2015, 2:15pm by Sam Wang

(Considering that this is a fairly narrow-appeal post, I will pipe it over to the right-hand “Meta-Analysis” column shortly.) Dear PEC readers, I have a math puzzle. It relates to my gerrymandering project. If you are good at working with probability distributions, take a look. Can you solve it?

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Tags: 2012 Election · 2014 Election · House · Meta-analysis · Redistricting

Mark Halperin tries out a quantitative approach

April 19th, 2015, 1:30am by Sam Wang

Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’);So, Mark Halperin went to New Hampshire to watch the GOP presidential field. And then he evaluated them by handing out grades, which I guess is meant to be rigorous. I think these “grades” reveal at least as much about modern political journalism as they do about what happened in the [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

The Real Problem With That Chart

April 13th, 2015, 11:03pm by Sam Wang

Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’);In today’s dustup between FiveThirtyEight and Vox, the press is missing the point. This is often the case, since most reporters understand mud-throwing better than they understand data. I am not interested in squabbles over whether it is kosher to show someone else’s graphic. That ship sailed ten years ago when [...]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President