Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

What do GOP voters want?

January 20th, 2015, 11:50am by Sam Wang



In a recent CBS poll, Republican voters were asked who they wanted to see run for President. In terms of the net yes-minus-no percentage, leading the pack were Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush. Trailing, but still with net positives were Mike Huckabee, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, and Ben Carson. In negative territory were Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Rick Santorum, and Rick Perry. Bringing up the rear? Chris Christie and Sarah Palin.

Palin is an interesting “control experiment” since her political career is basically over. Using her to define a maximum lack of enthusiasm (1 Palin unit, or 100 centiPalins), and Mitt Romney to set the high-enthusiasm end (0 centiPalins), Governor Christie is at 77 centiPalins. Whatever it is that GOP voters want, it doesn’t come from New Jersey.

Looking at the general temperature of enthusiasm for GOP candidates, one question arises: why are reporters spending so much time on Christie and not, say, Ben Carson?

Tags: 2016 Election · President

10 Comments so far ↓

  • mediaglyphic

    has anyone seen any poll analysis on the Israeli election?

  • Matt McIrvin

    I’m thinking the top tier will be Jeb, Walker and Rubio. All acceptable to the money mainstream and in positive territory here.

  • Amitabh Lath

    The CBS poll is not weighted by money. It treats the opinions of poor Republicans the same as that of Sheldon Adelson or Foster Friess. How naive can you get.

  • Leading Edge Boomer

    CentiPalin, indeed. I am reminded that a MilliHelen is the amount of beauty required to launch a single ship.

  • Ravcolt

    For 2014, Carson was ranked 6th overall and the highest ranked Presidential contender in Gallup’s most Admired Man of the Year. He will rise to the top soon enough, and will become the next President of the United States, thank God.

  • Jeremy Leader

    I think coverage doesn’t just depend on approval margin, it also depends on name recognition. After all, my dog would fall pretty close to 0. No one even knows he’s running, so no one has an opinion on him (until they find out he’s a dog, and not as fiscally conservative as he’d like us to think).

  • A New Jersey Farmer

    It’s all about personalities and name recognition at this point, and Christie has both. Carson is largely unknown and far more conservative, which means that the mainstream press can ignore him.

    My sense is that Romney’s numbers will go down as more acceptable choices emerge and signify their ambition to run. I’ll hedge on Bush for the moment. He could gave a real chance.

  • greensleeves

    “My question is: why are reporters covering Christie and not, say, Ben Carson?”

    Because political reporters cover the “smart money conventional wisdom” – ie the twitter/news room/campaign bus echo chamber – and not reality?