Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from November 3rd, 2014

Hidden errors, overconfident pollsters?

November 3rd, 2014, 10:05am by Sam Wang

I am thinking about how to get the most accurate last-minute snapshots of races, and how to turn that into a scorecard for you (and me) to use on Election Night. I’m also thinking about Brier scores as a means of evaluating the various prognosticators, including me. In the meantime, here’s your morning reading: an [...]

[

Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Late Breaks and Polling Biases

November 2nd, 2014, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

I got into poll aggregation in 2004 to reduce endless chatter about outlier polls. Hmmm, how’d that work out… — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) November 2, 2014 At least one journalist is chattering about whether there’s a late break in polls for Republicans…based on one data point, which is probably statistical noise. Some people are hopeless. [...]

[

Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

How To Get A Wave Majority With A Ripple Vote

November 1st, 2014, 10:15am by Sam Wang

New Yorker: Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);;js.src=p+’://’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’);Republicans will probably win the national House popular vote, but even if they didn’t, it wouldn’t matter. Why not? In The New Yorker, I discuss gerrymandering (a big cause) and population patterns (a smaller cause).

[

Tags: 2014 Election · House

Governors: incumbents still at risk

November 1st, 2014, 8:45am by Sam Wang

This year, an unusually high number of incumbents are threatened, both governors (last elected in the wave of 2010*) and senators (last elected in the wave of 2008). Previously, I identified 14 races where party control will change or the incumbent is at serious risk. In the home stretch, many governors have recovered slightly, but [...]

[

Tags: 2014 Election · governors