Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Election Night liveblogging, 7:00PM

November 4th, 2014, 7:09pm by Sam Wang

See below the fold for older commentary. The most recent comment will appear up top.

8:40pm: The Upshot has projected counts. For now, use those for your Geek’s Guide. Shaheen (D-NH) around +5% and McConnell (R-KY) around +13%, both ahead of their pre-election polls. Ambiguous for estimating Delta.

8:27pm: Reader Forrest asked me how The Upshot estimates vote share from partial returns. I can’t say what they are doing, but look at Jay Boice’s HuffPollster calculation. Basically take the prior history of the state, county by county (or whatever level of granularity you have available). Then slide over all the counts in past comparable elections, and see how each county would have to break in order to reach a 50-50 tie. Use that as an over/under, i.e. calculate whether a candidate is over/underperforming that expectation. Then do a weighted average across counties. That is an estimator of the margin between candidates.

8:17pm: Virginia Senate race looking close. But recall that in 2012, Romney led Obama until around midnight. This is going to take a while.

7:44pm: Everyone, please note: rural areas tend to come in earlier. That means early returns will tilt GOP. That’s not so useful for projecting results.

7:38pm: Kentucky’s projecting around McConnell+7% at the moment, close to polls. Actually, less sure. Stand by…

Virginia counts are screwy. Might be technical errors on the ground there.

7:06pm: CNN has called Kentucky for McConnell (R). It is too early to say whether he ran ahead or behind the pre-election polls of McConnell +7.5 +/- 0.6%. If he does, it will be by a few percentage points either way.

Commenter Chandra says CNN has McConnell+17%. Don’t pay attention to those raw counts! Uncorrected, that’s of no use in estimating the final margin. I think it will come in super-close to pre-election polls.

Tags: 2014 Election

84 Comments so far ↓

  • Michael

    The Cantor primary was more a case of no polls than one of bad polls.

  • Dave Fry

    Did everyone in Virginia decide to play a practical joke on pollsters this year? Between Cantor and Warner, those are some bad polls.

  • Edward G. Talbot

    Heading to bed, but it seems pretty clear that the polls on average were off in the Senate as suspected. . . in favor of Republicans. Maybe by quite a bit when all is said and done.

  • Kansas Man

    Wingnuts are back. Koch Brothers rule. What a disaster!

  • Michael

    VA is starting to look recount-ish.

  • Michael

    Yeah, a big bolus of R votes came in just after I posted. Hard to tell where they came from.

  • Kansas Man

    Crist and Warner are in trouble. Warner may make it.