See below the fold for older commentary. The most recent comment will appear up top.
12:10am: Tonight’s performance by the GOP has been quite remarkable. In close Senate races, Republicans seem to be outperforming polls by around 5 percentage points. That goes a long way toward explaining what is happening in Virginia. In close gubernatorial races, Republicans are outperforming polls by about 3 percentage points.
I did say that historically, midterm polling can be off in either direction by a median of 3 percentage points – far worse than Presidential years. Tonight is certainly consistent with that.
11:30pm: Ernst will win Iowa. Other than New Hampshire, it’s looking like a sweep of close races by Republicans. Counting CO, GA, IA, KS, and NC gets to 52. Alaska and Louisiana are still outstanding, but that’s icing on the cake for the GOP.
11:15pm: Republican candidates are heading toward victory in Kansas and Colorado. Still outstanding are Virginia (possibly D), North Carolina (probably R), and Iowa (moving fast, heading toward R).
10:55pm: Republicans are overperforming polls substantially. The exact amount varies, but in key states (KS, VA, GA Senate; WI, GA governor) the bonus is remarkably large.
10:45pm: Rick Snyder (R-MI-Gov) wins.
10:20pm: Nathan Deal (R-GA-Gov) wins. In this and other races, Republican governors are looking good.
Senator Pat Roberts (R-KS) is leading. If Orman loses that one, then I think it’s over for Senate Democrats.
10:08pm: Scott Brown (R-NH-Sen) loses by an estimated 3-4%.
10:00pm: Update on projected margins in early states: KY, McConnell +14%. NH, Shaheen +4%. NC…man, that’s a close race.
Very few governors’ races called yet…but incumbents are running stronger than indicated by surveys.
9:45pm: Wyoming Governor and Senate for the R candidates. This is in the category of taking out the recycling…not exciting to talk about, but gotta do it.
9:30pm: NYT calls NH-Sen for Shaheen. The margin’s looking like 3-4%, a bit better than the pre-election 2%.
9:00pm: Tom Wolf (D) wins Gov-PA. Susan Collins (R) wins Sen-ME. Abbott (R) wins Gov-TX.
The Upshot is estimating Virginia Senate at Warner (D) by 1%. Looks similar over here. A nail-biter for sure. This will depend on large-population counties: Virginia Beach, Prince William.