Princeton Election Consortium

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CNN with Candy Crowley: Sunday 9AM

October 25th, 2014, 8:27am by Sam Wang


On SOTU with Newt Gingrich, Stephanie Cutter, and A.B. Stoddard. Tune in! [transcript] [YouTube - it's the last segment, starting around 38:00 and named “Down to the Wire and Up for Grabs”]

Tags: 2014 Election

43 Comments so far ↓

  • wendy fleet

    As someone who taught public access TV for 10 years & did TV for 20, my first rule was just to chit-chat in the greenroom. It’s *always* fresher to have the actual interview or encounters happen live on tv. (“As I said in the greenroom . . .” always makes the viewer feel left out.) Watching the discovery that you would have in a real-life conversation is very thrilling. I taught this to a 20-year interviewer who had always pre-interviewed and she said it changed her show. The interviewee can submit 5 Points to Cover if folk are too chicken to go for the 100% Raw Interview. (Or a second person or producer can ask for the big points for such a list — but the principals should not leave it in the greenroom.)
    Darn! Could not find the clip on CNNGo after rooting for 1/2 hour yesterday. If someone finds it on youtube or something, pls let us know.

  • SFBay

    Just read the transcript. The round table was surprising intelligent. I give Sam all of the credit for that. Thanks for the discussion.

    • Insidious Pall

      I saw that, too. Funny how they get all accurate and cautious with someone like Sam on the panel. No one wants to go on the record making unsupported claims or predictions.

    • Sam Wang

      Would it have been better TV if I had not launched a full-court press in the ready room?

    • BR

      Where did you find the transcript? I was disappointed not to see the segment and haven’t found it online.

      Thanks!

    • securecare

      Probably would have made better TV for them to find out, shockingly, on camera, that you really did know what you were talking about. Bloviators shut down politely by facts etc in public view. IMO of course.

      For the viewers anyway.

  • AySz88

    It’s still available at CNNgo (http://www.cnn.com/go/?stream=CNN), for 2 days I think – scroll back to the 9 AM hour and it’s the last segment, named “Down to the Wire and Up for Grabs”.

  • securecare

    I think one has to buy the full episode through iTunes otherwise all you can get are “Popular Highlights”. Down on right side under “Podcasts”

    No transcript yet either.

    Maybe I’m wrong but…

  • Retiredteacher

    I didn’t see it on SOTU at noon. Perhaps it will be rebroadcast later. I’ll try CNN.com.

  • AySz88

    No noon rebroadcast here either: just the quarantined nurse interview, nih guy, and Issa being stupid and fear-mongering. At least (to me) CNN itself is being fairly level headed and getting the message out pushing back on this new quarantine thing. It’s these mostly-Republican politicians trying to scare people. :/

    • whirlaway

      As I saw it, it was Candy Crowley sitting on her butt and condescendingly telling the nurse that she would have gone to W. Africa even if she had to live through the quarantine on coming back, then lecturing the NIH guy that unless he can guarantee 100% that nothing will ever go wrong his advice is meaningless, and finally being so uninformed that she couldn’t challenge Issa when he said that the CDC gave no advice until now re: temperature monitoring by health care professionals (they did) and having no recommended threshold temperature (the CDC had said it is 100.4deg F)

    • AySz88

      I agree she was too soft on Issa’s lies, but I didn’t see anything like what you mentioned in Crowley’s interview with the nurse… :/

    • whirlaway

      That was towards the very end of the interview. Crowley took a parting shot at the nurse and then ended the program without giving the latter a chance to respond.

  • whirlaway

    Darn! It looks like CNN canned the interview the 9AM program here in CA. They are now back to their Ebola scaremongering! :-(

  • whirlaway

    I hope it will be on at 9AM here in CA. It will be the first time in countless months that I will be tuning in to CNN…

  • Canadian fan

    Beautiful job, Sam. For some reason this was the best panel discussion I’ve seen on Candy’s programme in some time – sober, serious, substantive, and cordial. You set the tone, and the rest seemed to fall into place. Bravo for correcting Newt’s point. It was so deftly handled, it seemed to simply glide through.

  • MikeN

    I was quite surprised to find this article at the Monkey Cage.
    “Our best guess, based upon extrapolations from the portion of the sample with a verified vote, is that 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted in 2008 and 2.2 percent of non-citizens voted in 2010.
    …..
    Because non-citizens tended to favor Democrats (Obama won more than 80 percent of the votes of non-citizens in the 2008 CCES sample), we find that this participation was large enough to plausibly account for Democratic victories in a few close elections.”

    Though they point out that voter ID laws wouldn’t alter the situation, is this likely to be accurate?

  • Insidious Pall

    Great job, Sam. Don’t know how you avoided being distracted by the Cutter, Priebus, and Wassername-Schultz clown car but good point about North Carolina being a harbinger for the other races.

    • Nathan Lazarus

      A unique feature of North Carolina is that it has exceptionally low elasticity. North Carolina has liberal academics and many African-Americans, and as the Upshot detailed in April, Southern whites are almost as Republican as African-Americans are Democratic. So unlike a Midwestern campaign (or, uniquely, Rhode Island) North Carolina campaigns focus exclusively on turnout. But it looks like campaigns across the country are putting more resources into turnout and less into persuasion this year relative to years past. So while North Carolina may best typify the national landscape, the state also has very ingrained turnout operations. The surprises will probably be states like Alaska, where it’s very difficult to understand turnout. Also, North Carolina is easier to poll than a state like Alaska. But we could see an October surprise from anywhere!

  • securecare

    Looking forward to it. Good luck.

  • 538 Refugee

    I really don’t watch much television, but going off what is said above they will drift into what is basically “fundamentals” or what the want to be or think is relevant. But oh golly gee. You’re just a math nerd doing some simple math on the available data in his spare time. Figuring out what drives the poll numbers is for smart folks like them to figure out.

    The clips I’ve seen you look perfectly comfortable when discussing this stuff. When all else fails pretend it is a presidential debate and see how quickly you can turn it back to your canned response. Actual question be damned. ;)

  • Olav Grinde

    I hope this will be available online, as my wife and I don’t watch TV.

  • Edward G. Talbot

    Good luck, Dr. Wang!

  • Alan Koczela

    Great news!

    As my mother said: “It’s nice when nice things happen to nice people.”

    Remember, this type of entertainment is closely related to pro wrestling.

    I know the following suggestions are obvious, but pointing out the obvious is the only thing I’m good at. Don’t let anyone get under your skin and don’t think anyone on the panel is a moron — they are not. They may disagree with your world view or use faulty logic, but they are not idiots. Treat them as such and they’ll polemically tear you apart. They have a lot more experience at this game than you.

    Good luck and look forward to seeing on the tube.

    • Ebenezer Scrooge

      Alan is right–they’re not idiots. They only play idiots on teevee.

    • Sam Wang

      With them all in prep room. Indeed they are smart…and more candid off-camera. With Priebus, Stoddard, Issa, Gingrich, Cutter.

  • Billy

    Be prepared for the conversation to be the opposite of “elevated”. They’ll want snappy talking points and answers to pointless questions such as “Are the Democrats doomed?” and “How does Ebola affect the election?”

    • SFBay

      That’s pretty much how all the political talk shows are these days. No actual discussion of actual issues is needed when you can just make things up along the way.

  • SFBay

    Olav, I stand corrected.

  • SFBay

    A question. Do you spend any time looking at polls numbers over time by the same polling organization? For instance, a poll that shows a lead which is different from others might actually be on the same page if you look back at their polling. The trend over time for the same poll is as important as the current poll. It says a lot about the way the race is trending.

    • Sam Wang

      That’s better than comparing two surveys from different organizations. However, my strong preference is to simply take all surveys available at any given moment.

      A more elaborate version is to unwind day by day results. I did that in 2012 with national Obama-Romney data with good results.

    • SFBay

      Will you use the same methodology for the upcoming 2016 presidential election? Oh, wait, I’m getting way ahead of myself. We have a very important election in 10 days. I’ll watch the individual poll trends this election and see how I stand up against PEC.

    • Olav Grinde

      SFBay, actually, we have a very important election not in 10 days – but right now. More than 7,000,000 Americans have already cast their vote.

  • SFBay

    Sam, you’re definitely getting around, and getting a rep as a go to person on what polls mean. Well deserved. I’ll catch you tomorrow.

  • Canadian fan

    I can hardly wait. Prepare for Newt Gingrich’s universe, however. It’s quite a splash. During Candy Crowley’s panel discussion of September 14, Candy brought up the Nate Cohn NYT article where he saw a clear path for Democrats to 50. Candy asked – where’s the GOP wave ? Without batting an eye, and with supreme confidence, Gingrich said he expected the GOP wave would arrive on October 1. With that piece of timely wisdom in place, and by a supreme twist of irony, we have now officially drifted back into the original PEC meta-margin forecast parameter for the elections. You’ll be superb, Sam !

  • wendy fleet

    Some goppish commentators are not necessarily adverse to the Outright Lie rather loudly proclaimed. Some folk are expert if not genius at Propaganda. Be prepared.