Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from October 31st, 2014

Saturday 9am: CNN (Smerconish) and MSNBC (Kornacki)

October 31st, 2014, 9:37pm by Sam Wang

I’ll be on CNN (Smerconish, sometime between 9 and 10) and MSNBC (Up with Steve Kornacki, live between 9 and 9:30). Key point on CNN (watch it here): is this Tuesday’s election an Obama referendum, or an echo of previous wave elections in 2008 and 2010?

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Tags: 2014 Election · governors · Senate

Races I’ll Be Watching On Election Night

October 31st, 2014, 12:05am by Sam Wang

Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’);Senate polls in individual states have moved around…but the Meta-Margin and the average seat count have stayed stable. Nonetheless, the crystal ball is cloudy. Why is that? The Midterm Polling Curse. Spoooooky! As I wrote last week, everyone’s calculations are, to an extent, built on sand. Historically, in any given year [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Iowa and Colorado: Is early voting showing up in polls?

October 29th, 2014, 9:43am by Sam Wang

Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’);Over at FiveThirtyEight is a new essay saying that there hasn’t been any concerted movement during this campaign season. Broadly, I agree with their objection that journalists and pundits overuse (and thoughtlessly use) the word “momentum.” However, in this case a close look at the data suggests there was strong movement [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Overreacting to Ebola

October 28th, 2014, 9:24am by Sam Wang

Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’); (click the above image for a high-resolution version) The amount of Ebola coverage is amazing: 1,869 stories from October 20 to 24 alone. That coverage came on the heels of the death of one patient in Dallas, Texas. The level of coverage is amazing considering the far greater impact of [...]

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Tags: Health

In State Races, As Much Suspense As 2006 and 2010 Combined

October 26th, 2014, 11:21pm by Sam Wang

Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’);Journalists and pundits have lavished considerable attention on the question of who will control the Senate in 2015. But a broader phenomenon has escaped notice: the sheer number of close state-level races, both in the Senate and in statehouses. At risk are many incumbents who were elected in previous wave years: [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · governors · Senate

CNN with Candy Crowley: Sunday 9AM

October 25th, 2014, 8:27am by Sam Wang

On SOTU with Newt Gingrich, Stephanie Cutter, and A.B. Stoddard. Tune in! [transcript] [YouTube - it's the last segment, starting around 38:00 and named “Down to the Wire and Up for Grabs”]

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Tags: 2014 Election

Senate horserace update: what does a Meta-Margin of R+0.4% mean?

October 23rd, 2014, 6:00pm by Sam Wang

Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’);Update, Saturday: with two new surveys in Alaska, one showing a tie and the other showing a Begich (D) lead, the predicted Senate Meta-Margin is D+0.0%, a perfect tossup. Statistically this is not different from the minuscule difference yesterday…but it does emphasize how closely fought the battle for control is. To [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Do governors face an anti-incumbent wave?

October 22nd, 2014, 12:05am by Sam Wang

TNR essay:Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:'https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’);In my new essay in The New Republic, I analyze gubernatorial races. The bottom line: there are lots of extremely close races, mostly involving embattled Republican incumbents. These difficulties for the GOP are a lot like what Democratic Senate candidates are experiencing: the need to defend gains made in a [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election

Sunday 9:45am – on MSNBC’s Up With Steve Kornacki

October 18th, 2014, 7:21pm by Sam Wang

OK, we rescheduled from last week. The topic tomorrow: elections and poll nerdery. The Senate obviously, but perhaps the House and governorships too. Tune in tomorrow! …and, here’s the video. It was fun, fairly substantive, I described the incredible power of Iowa voters compared with my puny vote in New Jersey (at the moment, 1 [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Midterm National Senate Polling Error Is Five Times Larger Than In Presidential Years

October 17th, 2014, 12:49pm by Sam Wang

Tweet Yesterday, Nate Silver and I both examined Senate polling errors. He noticed no overall bias averaged across all elections; I pointed out that recent bias has been unusually large. Both statements are true. But neither of us pointed out that the biases follow a significant pattern: midterm-year polling is far less accurate than Presidential-year [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · 2014 Election · Senate