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Entries from September 12th, 2014

Today on the Brian Lehrer Show: 11:10 am, WNYC 93.9 FM

September 12th, 2014, 8:55am by Sam Wang

This morning I’ll be on with Brian Lehrer to talk about poll math, the suspenseful Senate race, and when to accept a bet. Tune in! [Update 11:23am: that was fun. However, I just found out that Silver claimed that at PEC we use “arbitrary assumptions.” OK, that is an out-and-out falsehood. We use polls only […]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Senate 2014 Election Day Model (geeky version)

September 9th, 2014, 6:20pm by Sam Wang

[Today I wrote about the forecast at The New Yorker. Below, the math… – Sam] The Election Day prediction for Senate control is now fully live. There are parts that may require further tinkering, especially concerning how the results are displayed. But it’s basically in place. Those of you who followed PEC in 2012 will […]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Postscript on nerdery and throwing shade

September 9th, 2014, 4:32pm by Sam Wang

A brief followup to the post below.

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Tags: 2014 Election

Is Nate Silver a little too excited about his model?

September 9th, 2014, 7:06am by Sam Wang

“I would like to place a large wager against that guy…” says @NateSilver538 of @SamWangPhD‘s projection, which heavily favors Dems. — Brian Lehrer Show (@BrianLehrer) September 8, 2014 I guess when you’re the King of the Nerds, you have to be willing to engage in a little trash talk. I think this is a good […]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

A quick note on the PEC Senate model

September 4th, 2014, 9:06pm by Sam Wang

[Update, Friday 1:00pm: The Election Day prediction now takes into account the new Kansas Senate race, scoring it as a tie.] Welcome, new readers! Washington Post, Reddit, Krugman readers…great to see you all. I just wanted to make a few quick notes to orient everyone as to what’s going on here at PEC. We’re a bit […]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Game change: Kansas Democrat drops out of Senate race

September 3rd, 2014, 8:57pm by Sam Wang

[Update, Thursday 9:45am: see my new piece at The New Yorker.com. -SW] Chad Taylor (D) just dropped out of the Kansas Senate race. I declare this the political news of the week. To understand why, read my essays here (The New Yorker) and here (PEC). Basically the probability of Democratic control of the Senate is about […]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Politics · Senate