Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from September 20th, 2014

Weekend Nerdery (Basic level, part 1): Make Your Own Senate Prediction!

September 20th, 2014, 11:15am by Sam Wang

Some of you may think that analyzing polls is some kind of wizardry. It’s not. This is the first of a few Basic posts. I’ll have Advanced posts too for extreme PEC aficionados. As always, I reserve the opportunity to make minor corrections.

[Read more →]

Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Senate Conditions Are Back To September 3

September 19th, 2014, 4:30pm by Sam Wang

As of today, conditions in the battle for Senate control are just about back to where they were on the day after the shake-up in the Kansas Senate race. Using polls alone in a 2-3 week window (see right sidebar), current medians show the following key margins: Alaska D+5%, Colorado D+2%, Iowa D+0.5%, North Carolina [...]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Scotland Referendum Fails, Surpassing Polls

September 19th, 2014, 10:21am by Sam Wang

The Scotland referendum on independence has failed by a margin 10.6%. Why was this margin so unexpectedly large? A few days ago, I pointed out that “No” was ahead of “Aye” by 4.0 ± 1.3 % (5 surveys; 1 sigma uncertainty, p=0.014). Later surveys didn’t change that. It is incontrovertible that the polled demographic was [...]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2014 Election

How Our Predictions Work (continued)

September 18th, 2014, 7:20am by Sam Wang

If you don’t know anything about the feud between @NateSilver538 and @SamWangPhD, you know how this non-sports fan feels all the time. — Robert D Sullivan (@RobertDSullivan) September 17, 2014 Mr. Sullivan, this post is for you. Even though Nate Silver has misinterpreted what PEC did in 2010 as representing how we operate today, I [...]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Meanwhile, in real news…

September 17th, 2014, 8:33pm by Sam Wang

1) Currently, the critical race for Senate procedural control (i.e. whether Dems+Inds keep 50) is in Iowa. Braley’s up by a median of 1.0% over Ernst. That alone is driving the daily snapshot most strongly. Iowa. Is. Important. 2) Scotland is voting on independence tomorrow. “No” is ahead by 4+/-1%. For such a consequential question, [...]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2014 Election · Politics · Senate

How Our Prediction *Really* Works

September 17th, 2014, 11:10am by Sam Wang

I hear that the Princeton Election Consortium calculation has come under criticism for being statistically overconfident. I think there is confusion here, which requires a little explanation – and an appreciation for what I’ve learned since I started doing this in 2004. Basically, after 2012, any predictive calculation started to build in Election Day uncertainty. [...]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Will momentum encounter the Queen?

September 16th, 2014, 4:00am by Sam Wang

Last week I pointed out that most surveys indicated that the Scottish independence referendum is unlikely to pass. Nonetheless, a close look suggests that Thursday’s election will be extremely close, thanks to the elusive quality of political momentum.

[Read more →]

Tags: Politics

Monday morning – Senate steady, House on the move

September 15th, 2014, 9:09am by Sam Wang

Good morning! From a polling standpoint, there was little genuine news over the weekend. However, other sites are moving toward the Princeton Election Consortium estimate. There are several likely reasons.

[Read more →]

Tags: 2014 Election · House · Senate

CNN, Smerconish, 9:40am Eastern

September 13th, 2014, 8:27am by Sam Wang

Off to caffeinate. [Update: video here.]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2014 Election

A note on Scottish independence

September 12th, 2014, 4:06pm by Sam Wang

Next Thursday, the people of Scotland will vote on an independence referendum. What’s going to happen?

[Read more →]

Tags: Politics