Off to caffeinate. [Update: video here.]
CNN, Smerconish, 9:40am Eastern
September 13th, 2014, 8:27am by Sam Wang
Tags: 2014 Election
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HuffPollster feed- Obama Health Care Law: Favor/Oppose - Favor 49%, Oppose 42% (Kaiser Family Foundation 9/19-10/2)
- Trump Job Approval - Disapprove 53%, Approve 39% (CBS News 10/14-10/17)
- Trump Job Approval - Disapprove 59%, Approve 40% (AP-NORC 10/11-10/14)
- Trump Job Approval - Disapprove 53%, Approve 45% (SurveyMonkey 10/11-10/17)
- 2018 National House Race - Democrat 51%, Republican 40% (Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 10/10-10/16)
Spent some time trolling around the polling and political sites. It’s great to see how you and PEC are making an impact in the way that polling data is interpreted. It’s also interesting to note the arguments that other media types use to dismiss or minimize your hypothesis. The sauce is getting thick.
Yep. And Nate Silver’s uncouth attacks have a simple explanation, imho: Nate feels that the pre-eminence of his brand (real or imagined) is threatened.
That is great to know. At this point I have to keep the message simple and clear: look at polls only, and note that NYT and 538 have a finger on the scale.
And of course acknowledge the possibility that polls can change.
Saw the CNN stuff and you were awesome!! wow
Your system seems so much more rational to me than Silver’s. If you strictly look at the polls, Kansas seems to favor the Independent and NC the Democrat. The GOP simply won’t have the majority without those to states. If the polls in Kansas and NC start moving in the GOP column, then it will make sense to predict GOP control of the Senate. Until that happens though, Silver
is being pretty reckless with his prediction.
I’ve never understood why Silver is still sticking with the so-called fundamentals. His predictions in 2012, while it was true overall, wasn’t as closely accurate as PEC and Electoral-Vote.com.
Is there something about his particular methodology he’s sticking to which he feels gives a more accurate prediction?
@Frank
Hubris
Sam, is there anyway you can link to the video of your interview with Michael? Or maybe go all high tech and imbed it here on PEC?
Here’s the link (I don’t know how to go about embedding the video, or even if that’s possible here): http://www.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/bestoftv/2014/09/13/exp-smerconish-will-gop-take-senate.cnn.html
I just watched the segment on Smerconish’s show. You’re channeling Joe Friday from Dragnet. Just the facts ma’am. Thanks for the clear explanation of you model in 5 minutes or less.
Sam, The only thing that matters in the end is the accuracy and earliness of your predictions for the outcome on election day. To the end, continue to be crystal clear and open about your methods and predictions. Focus on that, don’t rise to any bait, and don’t engage others outside of the above.
IF this holds without much change what will it say about all that campaign spending blitz towards the end of the cycle?
Love your eyeroll at the mention of the 538 “feud”. CNN and media outlets love to generate controversy, but you want to stay on topic.
Ahh, I see in a previous post you identify the meta-margin as D+I. Maybe you should modify your header accordingly? There seems a significant probability that Mr. Orman decides who is in the majority. Or should I say, like Professor DeLong, Senate Majority Leader Orman?
Still concerned about Alaska, though.
Biggest question mark of the campaign, I agree. Probably close, and sparsely polled.
Nice interview. The segment on how Romney’s people were shocked by the results reminded me of the 1988 election. I was fresh in grad school and the MIT student groups for Dukakis had convinced themselves that the polls just had to be wrong, and there was a huge wave of progressive voters who were simply not being sampled.
They too had numbers and weights and analyses (for instance, Jesse Jackson’s support!) that sure sounded convincing.
The latest polling reports. Look how far out Nate is.
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2014/09/14/battle_for_the_senate_is_a_toss_up.html
Those all look the same to me.
If regression toward the mean holds, those probabilities should all move D-ward in the coming weeks. We’ll see.
538 updated this afternoon to Republicans 54.7% (previously 58%).