This morning I’ll be on with Brian Lehrer to talk about poll math, the suspenseful Senate race, and when to accept a bet. Tune in!
[Update 11:23am: that was fun. However, I just found out that Silver claimed that at PEC we use "arbitrary assumptions." OK, that is an out-and-out falsehood. We use polls only and are completely open-source. I do not think a polls-plus-fundamentals outfit like FiveThirtyEight should be throwing that particular stone! -Sam]
In other news, the Senate Meta-Margin’s holding steady at D+1.0%. The Meta Margin’s a better number to watch than the probabilities because it shows how much the race would have to swing to create a perfect toss-up situation.
D+1.0% reflects the close margins at present in a polls-only view. Look at the right sidebar – the top five races are all within 2%. Click on them for rich poll goodness, courtesy of HuffPost!
[*Update 3:13pm: A few of you have called attention to this. Let's clarify: it's affectionate. Nate's friends at DailyKos, Eschaton, and elsewhere adopted this to make fun of his critic Dean Chambers. It is explained here at Gawker. I see that I have exited the blogosphere and entered the world of actual media figures, and therefore must stop with the inside-y jokes. Point taken. -Sam]