Next Thursday, the people of Scotland will vote on an independence referendum. What’s going to happen?
There was some excitement over a YouGov/Sunday Times survey showing the “yes” vote leading by 2%. However, that now appears to be an outlier. The most recent five surveys, all completed in the last 10 days, show a lead for No by 4.0 ± 1.3%. As of today, that means a 95% probability that the referendum would fail in an election held today.
If the decided voters hold steady, a remaining issue is how undecided voters will split. In those same five surveys, a median of 8% of voters are undecided. However, there’s no correlation between undecideds and the yes-no margin, suggesting that there isn’t a hidden pool of pro-independence voters. At present, the data point toward Scotland staying in the United Kingdom.