A brief followup to the post below.
The people who need the most instruction in probability are not the fine people at FiveThirtyEight, but rather certain journalists who follow them. The political situation is uncertain. That nuance is hard to capture. My sense is that many reporters (and readers) take a probability of 51% and mentally round it up to 100%. This is a mistake.
At the moment, it’s important to avoid getting sucked into that kind of thinking. Going forward, I’ll try to emphasize measures that I think capture the race better – such as the Senate Meta-Margin, which shows how close the race really is!
And now, back to the analysis…