Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from September 30th, 2014

PEC switching (as planned) to short-term forecast

September 30th, 2014, 12:30pm by Sam Wang

[Note, October 13: The probability is currently displayed as a decimal, i.e. 0.4 means 40%. The reason for this is that the precision of the probability is no better than +/-10%. This is the case for other aggregators as well - we're just being explicit about it. - Sam] As planned for a long time, [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

A change in the air?

September 29th, 2014, 11:58am by Sam Wang

The Princeton Election Consortium’s approach to tracking current conditions has unique advantages, which are sometimes underappreciated and misinterpreted – even by major media figures. The advantages are: (1) We have remarkably low noise compared with a simpler approach such as at Electoral-vote.com or RealClearPolitics; and (2) We have sharper time resolution than other sites that [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Midterm traffic – thank you

September 27th, 2014, 9:36am by Sam Wang

Some of you are asking if the PEC polls-only prediction is wrong. I say no: the prediction is OK…so far. Recall the central assumption: the Meta-Margin range from June through now is representative of the future. Obviously, this week it is on my mind that the assumption won’t hold up. However, we’re only a touch [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Alaska and Colorado on the move

September 26th, 2014, 3:57pm by Sam Wang

The Meta-Margin is a powerful statistical measure. It collects all available polls into a simple index that tracks movement in the national campaign. No house effects, no fancy stuff – just a measure of national opinion, calibrated using Senate control to define the zero point. Recall that the Senate Meta-Margin is defined by how much [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Brief update

September 26th, 2014, 8:45am by Sam Wang

In CO-Sen, three good polls in a row for Gardner (R). That must have been some debate http://t.co/SF4cKWWVoe — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) September 22, 2014 In current polling conditions, the Senate Meta-Margin has left Democratic territory for the first time since mid-August. Not much to say about that for now, except that the sharp movement [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

What’s The Real Source Of Inaccuracy In Alaska?

September 25th, 2014, 5:30pm by Sam Wang

On Tuesday, I suggested that control of the Senate could come down to as few as four key races in Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, and Arkansas. There’s a fifth state where voters are exceptionally powerful: Alaska, because of the closeness of the race and its small population. But even though get-out-the-vote efforts in Alaska are certain [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Register to vote **now**!

September 25th, 2014, 6:30am by Sam Wang

Many states have voter registration deadlines starting NEXT WEEK. Check yours and make sure those you know are registered. #PoliQA — Prune Juice Media (@PruneJuiceMedia) September 25, 2014

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Tags: 2014 Election

Podcast at Political Wire

September 24th, 2014, 5:53pm by Sam Wang

I was interviewed today by Political Wire. Here it is!

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Tags: 2014 Election

A change to the banner

September 24th, 2014, 12:01pm by Sam Wang

We’re trying out a change in the banner above. Previously, we showed a snapshot, i.e. what would happen in an election held today. Now, the only probability given is for Election Day. Why are we doing this? The basic reason is that the election is not today. The day-to-day snapshot is extremely important because we [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

And Then There Were Four (or Five?)

September 23rd, 2014, 1:06pm by Sam Wang

In the last few days the Meta-Margin’s been bouncing around. It’s a snapshot of current conditions, and will probably keep moving up and down. That bounciness – so vexing to some of you! – is part of how I am sampling day-to-day variation. This is the principal input to our predictive model for the November [...]

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Tags: 2014 Election · House · Senate