From Brad DeLong, this headline caught my attention:
SAM WANG VS. NATE SILVER: NOTED
Always good to see the Ali-Foreman thing.
Seriously, though, take a look at Silver’s essay at his new home at Grantland. His description of conditions is a good overview of pre-shutdown conditions. If we stop with the continual budget crises, then I agree that we might drift back toward the conventional prediction (R’s keep control in 2014).
Where we differ is that I am adding to that picture the sea change in the last two weeks. As I’ve written, there’s big stuff going on. Poll movement is substantial and rapid in the generic Congressional ballot. Multiple polls, including a detailed one from NBC/WSJ, show that public sentiment has turned against the GOP. Under the radar, gerrymandered districts are swinging much harder than I was expecting. If the election were today, Democrats would control the House by about 50 seats. That will fade, but by how much?
Silver lists other events that didn’t move opinion: Benghazi, and the IRS business, and Syria. But the shutdown has, bigtime. I agree with him that most pundits emit bulls**t, which is why I am working on a prediction model. Right now, the model is saying: as long as the GOP stays on its current path, where the House goes next fall is an even-money bet.