Tomorrow at 4:00pm ET, I’ll be on MSNBC’s Disrupt with host Karen Finney and E.J. Dionne. In addition to the sharp swing in the last week (now a median of D+8% in the generic Congressional, n=5 surveys), I’ll mention this:
These are the 36 districts with GOP representatives surveyed by MoveON/PPP [data]. Gray symbols are from states I have previously identified as gerrymandered to maximize the number of GOP seats. All but one of the black symbols are nongerrymandered (one is a D gerrymander in Illinois).
It’s so rare to have nice, matched controls in polls. All of these districts were surveyed by the same organization on the same days. Even if the whole dataset is biased, differences between groups can be teased out. And there is a difference.
Red shading is likely GOP retention in an election today, blue shading is a Dem win. The black dots are both above (seven) and below (eight) the diagonal. But the gray dots are almost all below the diagonal (4 above and 13 below). Those representatives are in deeper trouble at the moment.
- Why are the gerrymandered districts swinging so hard? Are they full of persuadable independents?
- Has anger over the shutdown momentarily erased the gerrymander advantage?
If true, that would level the playing field. Basically, gerrymandering is a good way to lock in gains when opinion varies a little…but not when it varies a lot. The levee might be breaching at this moment in time. But…for how long?
Alternate interpretations in comments, please!