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Entries from November 5th, 2012

House 2012 prediction (final)

November 5th, 2012, 1:48pm by Sam Wang

Democrats and Republicans are tied in the generic Congressional ballot. But Republicans are unlikely to lose control of the House, to a significant extent because redistricting and incumbency give them a +2.5% advantage. A nongeneric, district-by-district look also favors maintained Republican control. Based on these two lines of evidence, Democrats appear likely to gain 2-22 […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · House

Brief notes

November 5th, 2012, 10:00am by Sam Wang

In case you missed it, Rick in Miami provided a Senate update, showing the likely seats at 53-55 D/I – from no change to a gain of two seats. Check it out. On the House side, here’s a guide for swing districts near you for GOTV. Today at 2:00pm ET, I’ll be on KCRW-FM in Los […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

Don’t (just) watch the EV estimator

November 5th, 2012, 1:36am by Sam Wang

Several of you are asking why the EV estimator took a sharp dive, from >320 EV yesterday to 303 EV today. Under current conditions, the Median EV estimator is prone to making some big jumps. Two large states, Florida (29 EV) and North Carolina (15 EV), were on the edge, to generate four major possibilities. Then […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

Comparisons among aggregators and modelers

November 4th, 2012, 6:08pm by Sam Wang

I get asked a lot about why the various aggregators differ from one another. After all, we all start with the same polling information. Today I will give a general sketch of how and why we differ – and what I view as the strengths and weaknesses. I’ll restrict myself to organizations that I am more […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

PEC in the news

November 4th, 2012, 10:00am by Sam Wang

Here’s some Princeton Election Consortium news (and about poll aggregation generally): Upcoming: Monday KCRW 2:00pm ET with Mark McKinnon, Sasha Issenberg, and Ron Brownstein.Tuesday WNYC 12:30pm ET with Leonard Lopate. Recent radio: KPCC Los Angeles, Colorado Public Radio, NPR’s Science Friday with Flora Lichtman and Nate Silver. Articles in Deadspin and Wired about the aggregation-hating […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · Site News

We’re back!

November 3rd, 2012, 1:04pm by Sam Wang

At last, we’re back. Andrew is a hero! Restoring the last few days of contenthere  now… Update: Done, with some modifications. If you like the temporary look see synapse.princeton.edu. If any temporary-site URL gives an error, replace “election” with “synapse.” Comments please!

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Tags: Site News

How likely is a popular-vote/electoral-vote mismatch?

November 3rd, 2012, 3:00am by Sam Wang

President Obama is peeling away. As you can see from the electoral vote (EV) estimator, he is the candidate with the momentum, not Romney. In terms of EV or the Meta-margin, he’s made up just about half the ground he ceded to Romney after Debate #1. And the indicators are still headed straight up. A […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

Where are undecideds falling?

November 2nd, 2012, 4:30pm by Sam Wang

(original version published on temporary site with comment thread) In the home stretch to Tuesday, undecided voters are claimed to be an unknown that could increase President Obama’s lead – or turn the race around for Governor Romney. But many pundits (and comedians) don’t understand what it means to be “undecided.” Most undecideds probably have a […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

National polls and state polls: same methods, different predictive accuracy

November 2nd, 2012, 11:00am by Sam Wang

(original version released on temporary site; comment thread) Yesterday I wrote a long piece on why national polls paint a different picture from state polls, despite the fact that they use very similar methods. Here’s the ten-cent version – the central argument. Imagine for a moment that national and state polls use exactly the same methods […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

Perverse media incentive watch: Chris Cillizza

November 2nd, 2012, 1:00am by Sam Wang

(original version published on temporary site; comment thread) Today, the Washington Post‘s Chris Cillizza has moved Ohio from “lean Obama” to “tossup.” Yet the current margin in Ohio is Obama +3.0+/-0.5% (n=14 polls, Oct. 13-Nov. 1) and probably insuperable. What could be Cillizza’s reason? He writes: “…the absolute necessity for Romney to win the state if […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President