Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from November 6th, 2012

Comment thread #2 – live blogging

November 6th, 2012, 9:41pm by Sam Wang

10:58pm: I realize I am late on this…McCaskill (D) over Akin (R) in Missouri. Sorry, I was too busy looking up Jennifer Rubin and Peggy Noonan tweets. Good times. 10:50pm: Follow returns at NYT and Politico. Both are faster at reporting results. They show 91% of vote counted in FL, Obama lead of 0.2%. 10:19pm: [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election

Comment thread #1 – and a little live blogging

November 6th, 2012, 7:39pm by Sam Wang

9:34pm. CBS: New Hampshire called for Obama. Erm, election’s probably over. And unskewers are full of it. On the same note: Florida is Obama 50.01%, Romney 49.99% with 81% counted. <0.5% is recount territory (Brennan Center).

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

Geek’s Guide to the Election 2012

November 6th, 2012, 5:20pm by Sam Wang

I’ve made a simple guide for tracking the election. It’s at geeks-guide-2012-b.pdf. My two pieces of advice are: Ignore exit polls and large states. Watch New Hampshire (expectation: Obama +3%) (CNN) (electoral-vote.com) I’ll use this post to list some resources. I’ll update this on the fly – check back now and then. Or leave your own [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

Presidential prediction 2012 – final

November 6th, 2012, 2:00pm by Sam Wang

I apologize to all for the late update. We wanted to make sure all the polls were in. And it’s a hectic day. The following are final estimates, based on taking polling data over longer intervals than our usual 1-week rule. Instead, I found the period over which a state’s polling variance was minimized, as [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

Tea leaves: early voting

November 6th, 2012, 1:00pm by Sam Wang

Early voting has been kicked around as an indicator of how the vote will turn out. It’s not perfect, since it reflects a combination of opinion, voter intensity, and maybe get-out-the-vote efforts. Still, here are some comparisons, taken from Prof. Michael McDonald’s early voting site at George Mason University. These are the fraction of early [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

Presidential prediction 2012 (final… stay tuned)

November 6th, 2012, 11:47am by Sam Wang

Now that all the polls are in, it’s possible to perform variance minimization, a simple procedure to identify the range of polls that can be used – and therefore reduce uncertainty. We’ll have that in a bit. Calculating and double-checking…stand by.

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Tags: 2012 Election · Meta-analysis · President

Senate prediction 2012 (Election Day final)

November 6th, 2012, 11:00am by Sam Wang

Briefly, my predictions are President: (mode) Obama 332, Romney 206 EV, (median) Obama 309, Romney 229 EV. Two-candidate popular vote: Obama 51.1%, Romney 48.9%. House: Democrats win 2-22 seats. D 205+/-10, R 230+/-10 seats, Republicans retain control. Senate: Democrats win 1-3 seats. D/I 55 +/1, R 45 +/- 1 seats, Democrats retain control. More on [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · Senate

Presidential prediction 2012 (Election Eve)

November 6th, 2012, 1:47am by Sam Wang

If state polls perform as well as they did in 2004 and 2008, most aggregators should get within +/-15 electoral votes and 48/51 races correct. The question is how to squeeze a bit more out of the data. The topline listed just below the title of this website is not our prediction, but the automatically-generated snapshot. It [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

The 1-point Sandy bounce?

November 5th, 2012, 10:02pm by Sam Wang

(Today’s our all-time high of traffic – over 300,000 350,000 views. That’s three times our 2008 traffic. Welcome, readers of Andrew Sullivan, Paul Krugman, Wired, Deadspin,Kevin Drum, Peter Norvig, The Blaze…The Blaze? ZOMG!!! I thought you were PECer-heads! Seriously…everyone go read that piece. Alternate reality.) Some of you expressed concern at an “unnerving” drop in the [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

KCRW – To The Point with Warren Olney

November 5th, 2012, 4:00pm by Sam Wang

On KCRW-FM Los Angeles (and by podcast), some good discussion about national vs. state polls. Ron Brownstein (National Journal), Sasha Issenberg (The Victory Lab), and Mark MacKinnon (Bush 2000) were very good on how polarized the electorate is. Sasha Issenberg speculated that “fewer than 10% of minds can be changed.” I’d put that number far [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President