Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Comment thread #4 – liveblogging

November 7th, 2012, 12:09am by Sam Wang


7:24am: Whew. Thank you all! Various wrapup in the coming days.

1:40am: In comments, a mixed reaction. Some of you heard unfriendliness. But a few of you thought he was more relieved than anything else. It had to be an extremely hard moment for him. Here is the full text.

1:09am: Caught the end of Romney’s concession speech, in which he said he’d “pray for President Obama.” Wow, that did not feel friendly. What else was said? Enlighten me in comments please.

Heitkamp (D) appears headed to winning ND-Senate. 50.8-49.2%, with 4% of the vote left to be counted. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) is in too. Next to be counted: MT and NV.

12:24am: Bill Foster is in. A particle physicist, and also a co-founder of a company that sells most of the theater lighting in the US. Quite the dude. Congratulations, Congressman-elect Foster!

12:21am: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is not losing time in calling on GOP to stop obstruction strategy. This is really important – if you have a D/I Senator, write to him/her about the supermajority rules. In our broken government, majority rule is important for both sides.

12:02am: OK, some remaining questions.¬†Will Obama win the popular vote? Looks like yes, but the jury’s still out.

In ND-Senate, Rick Berg (R) leads Heidi Heitkamp (D) 50.1-49.9%, with 91% of the vote counted. Right down to the wire. We’re still waiting on NV, MT, and WI.

Tags: 2012 Election

321 Comments so far ↓

  • Jeff

    In defense of Mittens, I think he did very well in his campaign. He had a tough road to hoe but he acquitted himself well. I’m less glad to see him lose than the wingnuts on the right who are setting education and information back a thousand years.

    • martin boutte

      I share your observation…Romney did all he could with what he had but in the end, you are who you are and it shows. On the other hand, the right quacks are so incendiary and backwards at times…they are oblivious to anything outside the beltway and tonight that got slapped down. HARD!!!

      I don’t think they even realize just how galvanizing and polarizing they are to Democrats. The alienation, xenophobia, homophobia, class/racial dog whistles. It needed to be repudiated in the fashion it was tonight. I felt a tinge of sadness watching Romney’s concession speech. He was a worth adversary but the demographics of the country is not wholly receptive to his message and most of the details about his life has been largely unexamined publicly. While I think most of the damage was self-inflicted, his party is bereft of new ideas that will champion the type of coalition that will see them return to power.

      Demographically, they must evole or the next election cycle will prove even more devastating. What that means for the Tea Party faction remains to be seen but a few of them got tossed out tonight so we’ll see if that brings moderates back to the head of their party.

    • Jeff

      You’re right about the wingnuts, martin. They do everything they can to piss people off. Sad to say, I succumb to that more than I should. Trying to ignore people like Ann Coulter is like letting a major force of evil run rampant in the world. I have a hard time with it.

  • Khan

    Haha, what a freudian slip.

    Romney just said about Ann, “She’s touched a lot of people with her campaigni….her compassion….”

  • Neil S

    That’s it. Thanks Sam and thanks to your colleagues!

  • Mike

    Dr. Wang, you just barely escaped eating a very big bug. Obama’s going to win Ohio probably by less than 2%. That’s scary close, and much worse than what a lot of polls were saying. The University of Cincinnati Ohio Poll gets it right again!

  • nynotes

    Thanks Dr. Wang!

  • Jeff

    Not that it’s comparable but when Romney said that his wife “would have made a great first lady,” it reminded me of what Hitler said about Wallis Simpson, wife of the abdicated Edward VIII: “She would have made a great queen.”

  • Craig

    Donald Trump is having an absolutely epic meltdown on Twitter about the electoral college and this election being a “sham.”

    Apparently he’s yet to notice that Obama has zoomed ahead in the popular vote.

    • Jeff

      I’ve never seen an older celebrity whore for attention like he’s been doing.

  • 538 Refugee

    Too bad Romney conceded. A Florida recount might be in order to save Sam’s prediction.

  • NickinLA

    Dr, Wang.
    Thanks!
    Thanks!
    Thanks!

  • Tapen Sinha

    Thanks Sam and Andrew. It has been a fun ride. I am especially glad about two things: (1) Romney and his band of clowns will not be able to take any credit for the economy improving. (2) The math guys have soundly defeated the airhead talking heads like George Will not to mention Dick Morris.

    Goodnight everyone.

    Tapen

    • wheelers cat

      Tapen, I missed you last night in my celebratory fog of tequila. I just wanted to say how much I enjoyed your skull furniture. It was a unique perspective I hadn’t been exposed to before. I hope we meet someday in meatspace.

      I learned so much here this election season. This was just the best commentariat I have ever been privileged to be a part of.
      Hopefully we will all be back in two years to tread the labyrinth of the midterm under Dr. Wang’s mad prescient skills.

  • Craig

    Pretty classy concession. I’ll refrain from further mockery of him personally.

  • Bob Castleman

    Math is awesome!

    Thanks Dr. Wang!

  • Khan

    Allen West might go down!

    Oh please oh please oh please. Early christmas!

  • WDR

    Still rooting for “None of the above” to win NV senate – a long shot I know

  • Matthew O

    Math ftw.
    Subjective Experience ftl.
    Being right? Too much fun.

  • Khan

    ALLEN WEST IS GONE!

    HALLELUJAH!

  • Chance

    Jury is still out on the popular vote? Silver and you both had O at 94% chance of winning.

    • Craig

      No, the jury is not out. There’s a big old state called California which is still counting votes.

    • Ben

      Barely 20% of CA has been counted, obama will have a 2-3mil lead by the time everything is tallied up

  • Adam

    Congratulations on another successful election Dr. Wang. You’re one of America’s treasures.

  • Reason

    Wisconsin called. So again, Dr. Wang. You cannot leave me hanging. We have a Governor race here next year. And I know you have one there in NJ. You cannot leave me! I demand you do an MM for your state and my state. Please! Thanks and have a great night. We are celebrating here. Work be damned come the morning.

    • Craig

      Seriously, there’s an election somewhere in America every year. Keep the party rocking, Dr. Wang.

  • Matt Weiner

    I agree with everything the good professor has said, and bow to this amazing website: except the point about Romney’s “prayer” comment. Maybe coded, sure, in how many ways…but more, just awkward. A stiff man, who chose to be a puppet. We will never know his inner workings.

  • Michael H.

    The concession speech of Romney was NOT friendly at all!! I was actually shocked. McCain did this MUCH better, and made an honest effort to reconcile. But I did not hear much conciliatory language in Romney’s speech tonight. How disappointing.

    • Zed T

      Perhaps because while there was vitriol towards Obama in 2008 (and plenty of it) McCain could still afford to be somewhat civil and not get too torn up by the hysterics of his party. No chance of that with Mitt in a post Glen Beck Republican base where Dems have gone from “the other guys with terrible ideas” to “Socialist Anti-Christs”

    • Jeff

      Very well said, Zed T.

  • Howie Weiner

    Good night to everyone and a good night it was. Looks like 332 wins the prize. I said 303 unless my Mom in Broward county could carry the state and it looks like she did! I’m proud of the country tonight, we rejected smallness and affirmed something that will serve us well. Thank you Dr. Wang for your hard, hard work through a tough campaign. And thank you, Mr. President you continue to inspire us all.

  • 538 Refugee

    A friend of mine IM’d this about the speech: I thought it wasn’t a bad speech. he needed to stop before his supporters brought him down

    • Michael H.

      I agree, it was “not bad”. But it most definitely was not good. What shocked me was the lack of conciliation, and almost no reaching out to say that the Republican Party would go the extra mile to work WITH the president, instead of being purely obstructionists. I am not surprised by this, but I am disappointed.

  • G. Camp III

    He recycled some of his campaign talking points, threw in a line about needing more schoolteachers, said something useless about job creators, thanked his family and campaign staff, and looked a little but like he might want to cry. You didn’t miss much of anything.

  • MarkS

    Sam, you coulda woulda shoulda gone with your original call on Florida (to use only polls with at least half of the responses after Nov.1)! I suspect you felt better about an analysis that had the mode closer to the median, but your first instinct was correct …

  • Rick

    Thank you so much Professor Wang. I enjoyed the time I spent with you. I’m glad to see your work vindicated.

  • Jay Bryant

    Before I call it a day, I just want to say thanks again and great work to Sam and Andrew. I look forward to your post-election analysis.

  • Craig

    The full setentence was “I pray that the President will be successful in guiding our nation.”

    Also

    “The nation chose another leader, and so Ann and I join with you to pray for him and for this great nation.”

  • Falsifypopperism

    what happens to the white man party now?

  • Dgarr

    To be honest I tried to listen to him, but he sounded condescending and fake as before. I muted him. :-)

    • Michael H.

      I continued to listen. But it was not easy!!

    • 538 Refugee

      My guess is the Tea Party is still full of themselves and believe the problem is that Romney wasn’t a true conservative and drifted back to the middle in the debate. From their perspective they have been successful in getting out the conservative message and probably just believe Romney bungled it as the spokesperson. Look for them to run 3rd party candidates soon.

    • Jeff

      The Tea Party is like Darth Vader. It may be defeated for now but it will rear it’s evil head soon enough.

  • Rose

    He said the word “pray” and the phrase “pray for President Obama” quite a few times, which I also found ‘unfriendly.’ Somehow it sounded as if there is nothing else that can help O and the country but prayers.

  • Bret Carrender

    If you think Romney’s concession speech sounded unfriendly, check out Akin’s concession. This man is a consummate ass. I’m very happy his political career is over…

    • Michael H.

      I am SO pleased that BOTH “rape” candidates got defeated. Thank heavens for the women that woke up and gave those to idiots the heave-ho!!

    • weinerdog

      That was a sorry spectacle. Akin just doesn’t get it.

  • Chance

    YAY! Alan Grayson returned to the House! That makes up for the loss of Kucinich.

  • Luke

    I thought Romney’s speech was strikingly devoid of partisanship and self-interest. In fact, I think his facial expression told the tale: with raised eyebrows and a hint of laughter at the corners of his mouth, he looked absolutely relieved to be free of politics. Perhaps surprised at his own relief, but still…

    Maybe I missed something, but I just didn’t hear any digs at Obama in Romney’s speech. He seemed genuine.

    • Jeff

      I think that’s just who he is. He’s not a natural politician so he comes off as artificial on the political stage. I think he did the best he could.

    • Sasha

      I completely agree. I thought the speech was devoid of “unfriendliness,” and I liked Romney a little more than I did before he gave the speech. Also, I too thought he seemed relieved, which is rather fascinating.

      Great job, Sam!!

    • Luke

      Agreed, Jeff. Romney was never truly extremist or antagonistic enough to fit his party. And he wasn’t very convincing acting the part.

    • grandpa john

      When you make your living being a con man you have to develop the ability to sound and seem genuine

    • Tom

      I believe that Romney, like Al Gore, was running for President out of a sense of family duty. And like Al, he showed genuine relief when it was finally over.

    • pseudonymous in nc

      I saw a kind of relief as well. He doesn’t have to do a Gingrich or Palin and trawl the conservative circuit or show up on Fox News. He can bid politics farewell, do family things and take part-time board memberships and enjoy his millions.

    • Dr. Xylem Galadhon

      I’m a bit surprised to see these positive reactions — i did not see a whole lot of emotion or graciousness in his 5min speech, certainly compared to John McCain’s ~20min (iirc) speech in 2008, which was quite a memorable one, one of his best during the whole campaign cycle. Romney’s seemed much more perfunctory to me.

      But anyway, maybe i’ll give him the benefit of the doubt, and ascribe all the positive features you all express here to him..

  • Kenny Johnson

    The nerds win!

  • Ian

    Sam

    I think you caught the speech near the beginning; it was quite short but did not come over as unfriendly to me

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/mitt-romneys-concession-speech-full-transcript/2012/11/07/99f9c98c-28a0-11e2-96b6-8e6a7524553f_story.html

    Thanks

  • David

    Yay, Heitkamp. I’m very grateful to Sam and Andrew for having identified these key races, so I could help level the playing field for progressive ideas. I look forward to the post-election analysis.

  • Sam Champion

    Romney’s concession speech was perfunctory, supercillious and patronizing.

    I am pleased that he is off the public stage.

  • Howard Roark

    Definitely heard the unfriendliness in the “i’ll say a prayer” comment. I felt it immediately. I’m afraid to say Romney was always a dick, and showed us that tonight.

  • Reason

    @Howard, I have to agree. Look at his time as Gov of Mass? Everyone said he was a dick then, a dick now and a dick always. His concession speech was a swipe. Sorry.

  • Reason

    Now, I want everyone here to notice the ONE state that is still not called: FL. Wow. The more things change the more things stay the same.

    • 538 Refugee

      I wonder if Sam is secretly hoping it goes Republican to fall in line with his forecast. ;)

    • Suja

      CNN just said that they have stopped counting for the night, that’s why it hasn’t been called officially.

  • Luke

    I hate to be the one to say it – but by this logic, Sam Wang is also likely some kind of Witch:

    http://isnatesilverawitch.com/

    • 538 Refugee

      Brought to you by epistemology and @vruba.

      Time for me to go to bed. I read that as “episiotomy”!

  • Franz

    It didn’t seem like a swipe, and it seemed he was as gracious as he’s disposed to be. He did, however, seem confused and like there was any place else in the world he would rather be.

    He also looked awful on camera and couldn’t get through it quick enough.

  • Jeff

    Prez knocked that speech out of the park. When he’s on, he’s one of the great speakers of our time.

  • Reason

    Sam did leave the possibility of Florida going for O. I picked 303/235 a while back.

  • Michael H.

    WOW! Obama just laid down one of the best speeches that I have ever heard him give!! I hope EVERY American listens carefully to that speech and to the message that it carries!!

  • mc

    Sam, Andrew- thank you x 10^100! Without you I don’t think I could have survived the past months. Go math!

  • Craig

    NV is so hard to read as it’s ongoing – pretty much all the votes are in Clark County.

  • Subu Vdaygiri

    I think O should have thanked Clinton in his speech. Anyway, I think O will return his thanks to Clintons in 2016

    • Julia

      I hope not. I’ve had enough ruling families on principle, regardless of party. I don’t think I could vote for Hillary Clinton as a presidential nominee in 2016. I think she’s been an admirable SoS, I’m glad Bill managed to get over his nauseating petulance of 2008, but please!

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