Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Comment thread #4 – liveblogging

November 7th, 2012, 12:09am by Sam Wang


7:24am: Whew. Thank you all! Various wrapup in the coming days.

1:40am: In comments, a mixed reaction. Some of you heard unfriendliness. But a few of you thought he was more relieved than anything else. It had to be an extremely hard moment for him. Here is the full text.

1:09am: Caught the end of Romney’s concession speech, in which he said he’d “pray for President Obama.” Wow, that did not feel friendly. What else was said? Enlighten me in comments please.

Heitkamp (D) appears headed to winning ND-Senate. 50.8-49.2%, with 4% of the vote left to be counted. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) is in too. Next to be counted: MT and NV.

12:24am: Bill Foster is in. A particle physicist, and also a co-founder of a company that sells most of the theater lighting in the US. Quite the dude. Congratulations, Congressman-elect Foster!

12:21am: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is not losing time in calling on GOP to stop obstruction strategy. This is really important – if you have a D/I Senator, write to him/her about the supermajority rules. In our broken government, majority rule is important for both sides.

12:02am: OK, some remaining questions. Will Obama win the popular vote? Looks like yes, but the jury’s still out.

In ND-Senate, Rick Berg (R) leads Heidi Heitkamp (D) 50.1-49.9%, with 91% of the vote counted. Right down to the wire. We’re still waiting on NV, MT, and WI.

Tags: 2012 Election

321 Comments so far ↓

  • Dave in Tulsa

    Finally! Krauthammer blamed Romney’s drop in the bogus Gallup and Ras national pols on Sandy! That fills out my Fox News Bingo card.

    • WiggleWorm

      LOL – I have to admit I never could stand more than a minute of Fox News (or MSNBC for that matter), but watching their meltdown was so hilarious.

    • Jeff

      Three guesses which polls they’ll be paying attention to four years from now. Krautpacker is a neo-con who is as irrelevant as those polls.

  • Neus

    Hi Dr. Wang—I don’t know what to do to you….your postings since I came aboard have been so soothing.
    Thank you so much….I’m not sure I can do this enough….All the best to you….and May God bless you richly…..I think we are headed to 332 EV!
    Good bye!

  • martin boutte

    Looks like The “MODE”….EV 332. It WAS the most frequent on the histogram. I thought 303 max so I’m pleasantly surprised.

    • BrianTH

      Calling Florida as very close was obviously a good call, regardless of which way any given such prediction ended up allocating its EVs.

  • BrianTH

    I’m currently seeing Heitkamp ahead by 1.6% with 96% reporting, which seems pretty solid. admittedly without knowing what is outstanding.

  • Larry Gonick

    How can Obama not win the nationwide popular vote? California results are only 17% reported, with San Francisco and Los Angeles still 0% counted. By morning, he should have a solid million-vote cushion. Unless you easterners have forgotten that California’s part of the USA too.

    • Olav Grinde

      I’m sure Dr Wang nails the popular vote as well. You betcha!

    • BrianTH

      I believe the networks are in fact calling a win in the popular vote for Obama.

    • Craig

      We’ve been making that point in the comments, we haven’t forgotten about you.

    • LTM

      We don’t forget about California, we count on it. Without California, we’d go RED in this country, probably forever.

  • M. Mckenzie

    Has anybody heard anything about funny business with the voting machines/tabulation in Ohio? Fretting over that was all the rage yesterday, seems like that bit of hysteria has passed.

    • Mason

      Yeah. The county-level export program produced an XML results file and the state’s tabulation program consumed a CSV file. The state asked ES&S to modify the export program to produce a CSV file.

  • WiggleWorm

    FoxNews says Romney to concede 1:55AM.

    Bachmann looks like she’ll hang on, given that Sherburne County is very red and not reporting yet.

  • BrianTH

    Vindication for Sam, Silver, and the other successful polling aggregators won’t come in the form of immediate apologies from their pundit critics, but it will come in the form of many more people taking their work seriously in the next elections.

  • Olav Grinde

    Is there a result in the Nevada Senate race?

  • Marco

    Apparently he has conceded, or will concede at 12:55 live…

  • Neil S

    Romney conceding according to CBS

  • Khan

    #concede is now the WORLD’S top trending Twitter topic.

    A friend of mine in Egypt just called and yelled some things about Americans stressing him out and saying he needed to catch some sleep before heading to the University.

    Romney is hurting everyone.

  • skmind

    Obama will win the popular vote. The western states will get him there

  • Marco

    After losing VA as well, and with FL on his way out too, if Romney doesn’t concede, I think that the nickname that the good folks at DailyKos have given him is right: it rhymes with rick…

  • Vicente

    Virginia margin up to ~1.5% per Politico. Looks like the poll aggregates were pretty sharp.

    • Craig

      Three presidential elections in a row! Let’s give my former colleagues in the polling industry a hand!

  • Jeff

    You’ve got it right, Craig. I think a lot of this holdout was to give Mittens time to have someone write him a concession speech.

  • Joel

    Democrats with 56 senate seats? Didn’t see that one happening. Looks like the straight polling average beats adding fundamentals. Score that a victory for Senor Wang.

  • Grateful

    He’s acting like a freaking drama queen! #concede

  • WiggleWorm

    Backmann/Graves and CA prop 30 are the two races keeping me awake now.

  • theDAWG

    Did any of you see the guy getting hit in the groin with a pumpkin on the Colbert Special? Sublime.

    Here in NY, I think the tally is three House takeaways, one close hold, and a close failed takeaway.

  • Grateful

    Folks at PBS are dumfounded that Romney hasn’t conceded yet…just as they announced VA for Obama…

  • TAW

    I share the same thoughts about California and the popular vote margin.

    I’d like to see Obama pick up at least a million votes.

  • Jeff

    Sam Wang: I hope you and Nate Silver get the credit that you both deserve for your work and correct predictions during this election. It was a “who’s right, who’s wrong” push/pull between you guys and people like Karl Rove and a lot of other fools. You guys won and all intelligent people I know (including myself) have been paying attention to your work. You are the stars of election polling and hopefully everyone will know it.

    • Craig

      I fully expect a lot of apologies which will never, ever materialize.

    • LTM

      Totally agree. Watch everyone on the right run and hide after running their mouths off about Sam and Nate’s predictions. Would give real money right now to see all their faces.

    • RDT

      Got to give a bit of credit to the pollsters too :)

  • Matthew M

    CBS just called VA for Obama. No surprise there given the returns over the past hour or so.

  • Dave in Tulsa

    Fox finally had to say that Obama has taken the lead in popular vote too.

  • AlpsStranger

    REVENGE OF THE NERDS, BABY!

    Dean Chambers is a dumb hillbilly!

  • mlhradio

    Another important House race to keep watching: In Minnesota-6, Michele Bachmann is hanging on by her fingernails against challenger Jim Graves. Currently with 57% of the vote counted, it’s essentially a 50-50 tie, separated by about 300 votes. http://elections.msnbc.msn.com/ns/politics/2012/minnesota/house/6/#.UJnxg3pnA8I

    Could we be so lucky as to hope, to imagine, to DREAM of a Congress without Bachmann? Fingers crossed…

    • WiggleWorm

      Aw, that will take a major source of entertainment away.

    • Matthew M

      Jim Graves seems to be a stand-up guy. I’m really hoping he pulls this off.

    • WiggleWorm

      Wow, to steal a mixed metaphor from the press, this is “razor tight.” Anything know about the leanings of Sherburne County (0% reporting as of this writing)?

  • Khan

    #soreloser and concede are trending on Twitter.

    People are furious right now.

    • Grateful

      Maybe he’s stalling for more time to write the concession speech he never wrote ahead of time?

      Just heard Martin Heinrich beat Heather Wilson in New Mexico. Congratulations to my former state.

  • DaveM

    Obama within 72,000 popular votes with three quarters of California yet to report.

    • DaveM

      Oops! And just like that, Obama takes the lead. No split popular/electoral results tonight.

  • Grateful

    NYT is saying Obama got NV, CO and…my state, the Commonwealth of VA. I’m shaking, can’t believe it :-)

    NoVA, we did it again!! http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/live-coverage?smid=tw-thecaucus#sha=414303edb

  • Canadian

    Even if Ohio was taken out Obama still has 272 votes. First they didn’t believe the science, now they don’t believe arithmetic.

  • wheelers cat

    I TOLD you guys about Colorado.
    /vindicated

    and i still will not yield florida.
    I think Romney is trying for the Nightmare Scenario from Olav’s video.

    need moar drink.

  • John

    Sam, why are you banging on filibuster reform?

    The House is still going to be controlled by the hard right.

    All you are doing is potentially setting the country up for disaster in 2016.

    • Sam Wang

      Go look up James Fallows. It is true that the House will still be controlled by Republicans. But very little can get through a Senate that requires 60 votes to pass anything. This is absolutely critical for our democracy.

    • Craig

      The filibuster is anti-democratic and anti-progress.

    • John

      The filibuster is anti-democratic and anti-progress.

      Is it progress when Medicaid gets gutted, Medicare gets voucherized and SS gets privatized?

    • Craig

      Remember the last time the GOP tried to privatize Social Security? It never even got to a filibuster.

      And the Republicans will abolish the filibuster as soon as they hold the White House and Senate anyway. All you need is 50 votes at the beginning of the session.

    • Craig

      I sometimes think that people get all their info on the filibuster from Jimmy Stewart.

  • JohnH

    Thank you Dr. Wang for your work.

  • WiggleWorm

    The Fox News denial-thon continues…now touting the popular vote showing Romney ahead 150k votes with most of CA not counted yet. Straws and rainbows.

    • Matthew M

      Aaaand now Obama’s ahead in the popular vote (CBS). Poor Fox.

    • HorseIsAHorse

      Obama will triple that 150k gap just in Los Angeles County alone, which is still 0% counted.

  • betsy teutsch

    Heitkamp leads Berg by 2K votes.

  • Timotheus

    From Ohio, I assure you this is no joke. Every possible trick has been used, and Rove and Hustad will surely try to skew the final results.

    Google Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman to see the history of voting corruption since 2000.

  • Ross C

    MM 2016 tomorrow?

  • G. Camp III

    Andrew Sullivan, in a tweet and live on Colbert, thinks that the Republicans’ epistemic closure is about to end, that their bubble will burst, that they will finally have to “face reality.” Colbert was humorously doubtful; I think Colbert is, sadly, correct.

  • Bob in CO

    Romneyoids still can’t do the math. Even if he wins Ohio (he won’t) and even if he wins Florida (he won’t), and even if he wins Virginia (he won’t), he’s lost Colorado and will lose Nevada. That’s Obama 272. MAN UP AND CONCEDE MITT!

    • Marco

      CNN just called both Nevada and Colorado. If Romney does not concede now, he will look pathetic…

  • RC

    Dr. Wang, thank you for all that you do!!! As a fellow Stanford man I thank you for using that old tool MATH so elegantly.

    Can’t wait for the next election cycle predictions.

  • Peter TS

    Fox reporting that Romney has refused to concede, so far, based upon his (and Karl Rove’s) belief that Ohio could still go their way. Seems they don’t like math very much.

    • Olav Grinde

      Unless, of course, they know something that we don’t about the voting machines in Cuyahoga, Franklin and Hamilton counties. But at this stage even that cannot save Romney — Obama looks set to carry Virginia and Florida (with > 0.5%) as well.

  • mlhradio

    One of the races that I have still been watching is the TX-23 Congressional race, one of the very few “toss-up” contests in the House this year. As of right now, Pete Gallego (D-Alpine) looks like he just might pull one out over incumbent Quico Canseco (R-San Antonio), now leading 50-46 with 80% of the vote counted (and likely to widen as the votes in the western counties, esp. El Paso, come in). At this moment MSNBC projects Gallego to win: http://elections.msnbc.msn.com/ns/politics/2012/texas/house/23/#.UJntuXpnA8J

  • Khan

    MSNBC just called Colorado (which had been called by several others) and Nevada won’t be far behind.

    Also, Ohio is going blue. The almost 3/4 million votes remaining are going to Obama 65-35 and Obama is only down 20K.

    He has won. This is over.

  • Olav Grinde

    Sam, are you sure about ND? Politico has Heitkamp leading 50.7% to 49.3% with 91.3% of the vote counted.

  • WDR

    Um – I’m seeing 50.7/49.3 Heitcamp with 91.3% reporting at Politico – was there a glitch?

  • Craig

    Fox News is hilarious right now. Cleveland and Toledo still reporting, yet they think it’s too close to call.

  • STLLabRat

    NYT has Heidi up by a smidge with 91%.

  • 538 Refugee

    Still waiting on Virginia and Florida? We knew Florida would be tight. I’m surprised at Virginina.

    • Matt McIrvin

      I think Obama’s lead in VA is only going to open up a bit from here on. It’s much like OH, the Democratic strongholds take longer to report. There’s a bit of Fairfax County left (I think people were standing in line long after official closing time) and a larger chunk of Norfolk.

      Still, I too expected Virginia to lean more toward Obama than FL or CO.

    • Matt McIrvin

      So, that ~2-point discrepancy between state and national polling: was that really nothing but Romney leading in the sparsely polled deep-red states by a zillion points?

    • Craig

      Votes will be trickling in for days, especially from the West Coast. I bet 2.5 % for Obama, and I don’t think I’ll be wrong by much.

    • don in fl

      msnbc says co. nv.too close to call.

    • wheelers cat

      @Matt
      Michael McDonald said it could be Sandy effect.
      He projected the turnout to be ~2 % less than in 2008.
      sadly, that means Rasmussen will continue to do evil undetected and unreprimanded.

  • don in fl

    better go back and look ohio.

    • Matthew M

      Speaking of FL, Obama’s lead there is pushing 50K again. He might take the state without a recount. Nice cherry, nice cake.

    • Scott Tribe

      What is left in Ohio is Democratic strongholds.. and as I look at TPM’s electoral map, Obama is back ahead by 23K with 13% left to report

    • David

      Why? It’s over. Obama doesn’t need Ohio. He has Colarado.

    • Emory Mayne

      Firstly, thank you for a BRILLIANT site and all your efforts.

      If (when) President Obama wins the popular vote, does this mean that Romney wins the unpopular vote? Given that a strong Republican demographic seems to be the elderly, and that, that demographics higher percentage proberbility of not being around in future elections, will this make their unpopular vote win even stronger, as time moves on?

      Anyhow – How does a Massachusetts (code for Liberal) Governor, who is Mormon (code for belonging to a cult) win the conservative, bible belt south South?

    • M. Mckenzie

      Because racism (says the southerner).

    • rick

      50 out of 50 for nate woooootz go nerds