Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Comment thread #3 – live blogging

November 6th, 2012, 11:14pm by Sam Wang


11:39pm: Commenters are pointing out Karl Rove being thrown under the bus by Megyn Kelly. He’s still doing his sums, arguing a Romney victory in Ohio is possible. Wow. Just wow. (1) Anger, (2) Denial, (3) Bargaining…holy Kuebler-Ross.

11:34pm: Randall Munroe just texted me “BREAKING: Numbers continue to be best tool for determining which of two things is larger.”

11:33pm: To summarize what we have so far: Obama re-elected, Democratic gains in Senate, maybe tiny gains in House. Not so far from where we’ve been for the last few years. So…how to avoid gridlock? While you’re absorbing all this, write to your Senator and encourage filibuster reform. This is the #1, #2, and #3 issue that must be addressed in the new Congress. There will be no progress without a rule change.

11:21pm: No bugs for me!

11:19pm: Fox News declared Obama the winner, then started attacking him. I guess the honeymoon’s over.

11:15pm: NBC just called Ohio for Obama. That’s it! 275 EV. What will be the final outcome – 303 or 332 EV? Florida is making it look like 332 EV. I guess Virginia is still up in the air, but I think it will go to Obama by morning.

11:13pm: They’re alternating between rambling and morose at Fox. Comedy Central is more fun.

Tags: 2012 Election

191 Comments so far ↓

  • Torrey

    Yay math! Thanks, Sam!

  • mlhradio

    “They’re alternating between rambling and morose at Fox.”

    Couldn’t have said it better myself. Watching Shep Smith via my local over-the-air Fox affiliate, he was stumbling and dissembling, muttering “I just can’t see a path” moments before the race was called. Bemusing, yet painful to watch at the same time.

    And then, like flipping a switch, the move smoothly right into “Attack Obama Mode on Everything” without batting an eye.

  • Bill N

    Anyone know what is happening in Florida? And did Ryan get re-elected to the House?

  • Anonymous in Teaneck

    From one NJ resident to another, thank you, Dr. Wang!

  • Loudoun

    Obama just opened up a 17K vote lead in VA with Norfolk and Portsmouth still to report as well as a large number or Northern VA precincts

  • Amitabh Lath

    Bill Foster wins in IL. The night is complete.

  • rags

    Math 1; Gut 0

  • Ross C

    Just about an hour ago I was watching Karl Rove do The Math about why Romney was still going to win Ohio. The numbers were flying, and the blonde Fox hostess got confused, as did I. He actually had me worried for a moment. I hope I can remember that. Liberals get worried too easily. I wish I had a nickel for every comment here that started off, “I’m still worried…”

    On to more upbeat things! Winning!

  • Howie Weiner

    Check out Karl Rove on Fox arguing the Ohio results. Priceless!

  • weinerdog

    Thanks Dr. Wang – in addition to the numbers, your advice about watching NH early was spot on!

  • BarbD

    So glad Obama won, but I was hoping to get rid of some of those Box Elder Bugs that keep appearing in my office. Guess I’ll have to keep schlepping them outside into the cold.

  • jd351

    Great Job Sam, Well Done… On another note the media really does a bad job….

  • Gil

    next election i’m gonna skip all the pundits and go straight here.

  • Anon

    Fox is now walking back its projection on Ohio.

  • Noah

    I know Andrew Sullivan said this already, but Sheldon Adelson may have just had the worst night of his life.

  • Alex Gillespie

    Thanks Professor Wang, for sparing me (us) all that punditry for all those weeks.

  • Aravind

    Brilliant work, Dr.Wang. Just brilliant.

  • Joel

    Thanks, Sam. I know this is ridiculous, but you’ve been important to me, these past few weeks!

    (And important to my wife, who avoided my rollercoaster mood swings!)

  • John

    I thought I was on Comedy Central, but it turned out to be Fox.

  • Michael S

    Well done Sam.

  • ChrisD

    From a commenter on Race 4 2012, a rabid right-wing election website I’ve been monitoring:

    “I admit I am an idiot. Pollsters were right. Nate Silver was right on the money. Won’t question them again.”

  • David

    Thank you for all your analysis, very enjoyable.

  • Amitabh Lath

    Well done Sam. It’s been a lot of fun watching you do the math all through this. Your simple and elegant method showed them all up.

  • Bill N

    Thank you Sam! Your site did indeed help me keep my sanity and blood pressure under control these past few months. Now that Obama has been re-elected, it will be fun to see how close the final results come to your projections. GREAT JOB!

  • Rick in Miami

    MATLAB wins!

  • Kathryn

    Sam- you are the best. Help us pull it out in Virginia and we’ll be even happier!

  • don in fl

    think ill turn to fox.this will be fun. thanks its been great reading your comments.

  • Ross C

    This is excellent news…for Barack Obama!!!! So relieved, happy, relieved. So awesome for America, my kids, everything. Nice job Sam, you spared me a trip to the funny farm.

  • Frank Douma

    Congrats Sam – you kept me sane over these past couple weeks, and were spot on!

  • MAT

    The Revenge of the Central Limit Theorem!

  • Jordan

    I guess the polls weren’t skewed after all.

    • Alan Cobo-Lewis

      Fox news is shocked that the party ID is right where the polls said it’d be

  • Angela

    Thank you Dr. Wang. Math for the win! You, and this site, were so helpful for my blood pressure and stress levels.

  • AlpsStranger

    But but, what about the unskewedpolls?!

  • DelMartian

    Why does CBS still talk about Romney being ahead in the popular vote? California isn’t in it yet!

  • Howie Weiner

    Hello from Chicago!!!! Home of President Obama!!!!

  • Josh Cryer

    Oops, sorry, looks like CNN beat them. Cute.

  • Jonathan

    Thanks again Sam. Class act all the way and very courageous.

  • eigenperson

    No bugs!

    I’m still not certain about Virginia, though. Obama seems very likely to win Florida at this point — maybe without even a recount — but right now it looks like Virginia will be super close.

  • Subu Vdaygiri

    Congrats! Dr. Your models are cool. Still like to see you eat bug (OK, eat a chocolate bug)

  • Vicente

    Sam, thank you so much for your work over the election.

  • Chris Bixby

    Sam YOU are the best!

  • Bill

    You and Nate Silver both show a 20% chance of 330 — I think that’s where it will end up

  • Matt

    What, exactly, is going on with Wisconsin? I bunch of places still have Romney ahead there.

  • Josh Cryer

    Haha, Fox News calls Obama reelected, before the other networks.

  • Matt Blanchard

    Thanks so much Dr. Wang. You saved my sanity over the past month. For real! Go nerds!

  • Bill

    No Big Bug for you!

  • Futurist

    No bugs for you!

  • Dean

    I’m ecstatic in Chicago tonight, my home town, around four miles from the president.

  • Khan

    We win!

    Landslide!!!!!!

  • Josh Cryer

    Fox News just called Ohio for Obama. They’re so somber. CNN just called Oregon for Obama, so if they’re both right then Obama won.

    • Alan Cobo-Lewis

      Fox News now reporting that Romney campaign is disputing Fox’s OH call.