Ron Brownstein (National Journal), Sasha Issenberg (The Victory Lab), and Mark MacKinnon (Bush 2000) were very good on how polarized the electorate is. Sasha Issenberg speculated that “fewer than 10% of minds can be changed.” I’d put that number far lower. If you look at the Meta-Margin graph, the swings of this year’s race could be explained by as few as 3% of people changing their minds. That’s assuming none of the ups and downs come from changes in voter morale on either side. The swing is half what it was in 2008.
Also, Mark MacKinnon suggested that Hurricane Sandy “stopped” Romney’s momentum. As I have pointed out here, Ro-mentum came to an end three weeks ago. However, I am starting to see the outlines of a story along the lines of “the dog ate Romney’s homework.” Maybe this dog?