(Today’s our all-time high of traffic – over
300,000 350,000 views. That’s three times our 2008 traffic. Welcome, readers of Andrew Sullivan, Paul Krugman, Wired, Deadspin,Kevin Drum, Peter Norvig, The Blaze…The Blaze? ZOMG!!! I thought you were PECer-heads! Seriously…everyone go read that piece. Alternate reality.)
Some of you expressed concern at an “unnerving” drop in the EV estimator today. I’ll make a confession: part of that was a recent data glitch. Pollster.com was feeding us the rolling daily Ipsos/Reuters averages, which were redundant, especially in North Carolina. It’s fixed now. After the dust clears we’ll scour for similar earlier mistakes.
Where I live, Halloween was postponed until tonight because of Sandy. The last of the trick-or-treaters have trickled by.
Judging from the return toward semi-normal life here in hard-hit New Jersey, voting mechanics should only be affected in some regions, and less so in other (less blue) states. So the direct physical effect of Sandy is probably small. But what about indirect political effects?
Pundits on the right have claimed that Sandy “stopped Romney’s momentum.” Hmmm. First, let’s point out yet agaain that in terms of state polls, Ro-mentum stopped on October 13th or earlier, the week after Debate #1. The pattern was one we’ve seen before: a force drives opinion away from a Meta-Margin “set point” of Obama +3.0%, then relaxes back – like what happens after you pull on a spring. We’ve been seeing a version of this in the form of steady movement toward President Obama.
This recovery has not been visible in national polls, which until this week have been flat. I am puzzled about why they would differ from state polls in this way. Maybe nonswing state voters were less attentive to political events after Debate #1.
That appears to be a 1.0-point swing toward President Obama. This will require further analysis. But it suggests that as I prepare final predictions, November 1st is a date to look for late-breaking trends. This is a challenge for prediction, since I had hoped to integrate data over a longer period using a secret sauce (did you click on that? secret no more).
Tonight I’m preparing final predictions, as well as collecting useful links for Election Night – a Geek’s Guide. Regular readers, I seek your help. In comments, could you please cite your favorite places for various bits of information:
- election returns as they come in;
- early voting;
- what you’ll be watching for; and
- other useful information?