Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from October 12th, 2012

Bush v. Kerry revisited?

October 12th, 2012, 2:15pm by Sam Wang

In national surveys, Romney’s up by a median of +1.0+/-1.0% (n=10). Yet the Popular Vote Meta-Margin, which is nearly all caught up, is at Obama +0.84%. What accounts for the difference? Normally I don’t engage in this kind of detailed combination-dissecting, since there are so many possibilities. The whole point of the Meta-Analysis is to [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

A prediction on Biden v. Ryan

October 11th, 2012, 11:33pm by Sam Wang

Biden seems to have given Ryan a thrashing, cornering him on budget policy and besting him on social issues. Ryan came off as more knowledgeable on foreign policy than I was expecting. He appeared to basically agree with the Administration. Since the expectation on the right was that a buffoon (Biden) was up against a [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

Ignoring Ludwig Wittgenstein

October 11th, 2012, 12:15pm by Sam Wang

Wittgenstein is useful today: Whereof one cannot speak, therefore thereof one must remain silent.* In modern parlance: STFU. Did I fall prey to the pressure to say something before its time? Still, Jon Stewart asked for nerds. And nerds always have something to say. Examining the aggregates, it looks like Romney had a 5-point bounce – [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

As the post-debate polling cycle matures…

October 10th, 2012, 9:30am by Sam Wang

Tweet // < ![CDATA[ !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=”//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js”;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document,”script”,”twitter-wjs”); // ]]>Josh Marshall, Andrew Sullivan, and John Podhoretz (but not the ever-sensible James Fallows) are asking: should the President’s supporters panic? Based on how campaigns generally behave, definitely not. At least wait until the weekend. I know that seems like an eternity. Let me explain.

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

House districts on the knife’s edge

October 9th, 2012, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

At reader request, I will briefly go retail. What House seats might change parties? Pollster.com’s district-by-district breakdown gives a sense of which districts are in play, Here’s a left-leaning look (DailyKos, Speaker Pelosi Project) and a right-leaning look (RedRacingHorses) at the question. Note the similarity in districts selected. Generally, the DCCC and NRSC cover this problem comprehensively. In [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · House

An apology to poll-dissecters

October 9th, 2012, 9:30am by Sam Wang

The appearance of an exceptionally favorable Pew poll to Mitt Romney has many of you in a tizzy. You have asked me to comment further. I am really not good for that kind of thing. I respectfully submit: neither are you! Here is why.

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

Romney rallies the faithful

October 8th, 2012, 3:00pm by Sam Wang

Update, 5:05PM: The Meta-Margin just changed to Obama +2.3%. Maybe let it stabilize a bit more…tune in tomorrow. -Sam The varied nature of state pollsters is often regarded as a minus compared with national polls. There are partisan outfits, little organizations, one-shot polls, and so on. However, one good thing: when partisan-leaning pollsters get excited, they might [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

Legislate like a pirate day: Filibustarrrr!

October 8th, 2012, 9:00am by Sam Wang

What’s wrong with Congress? One big answer is the filibuster. Nearly half of the filibuster threats that have ever happened have occurred since the Clinton impeachment – and they are on the rise.

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Tags: 2012 Election · Senate

Bright and early

October 7th, 2012, 8:00am by Sam Wang

And now for something rather different: neuroscience and child development. My co-author Sandra Aamodt and I write in today’s New York Post about infancy and early-childhood programs. New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg and schools chancellor Dennis Walcott have announced significant expansions of these programs for fall 2013. Such programs pay for themselves at least seven [...]

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Tags: Uncategorized

Predictions 10/6: House of (un)Representatives

October 6th, 2012, 12:01pm by Sam Wang

I am in complete suspense over who will control the House. As far as I can tell, things are about as much on a knife edge as one could imagine – despite a Democratic lead in polls. Why?

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Tags: 2012 Election · House