Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from October 19th, 2012

Joe Biden’s dawn?

October 19th, 2012, 7:30am by Sam Wang

The tyranny of online political writing is that one often feels under pressure to interpret events before enough information is available. I am now wondering if I wrote off the VP debate a bit prematurely. Last week, President Obama crash-landed spectacularly, ending up with a bare electoral lead over Mitt Romney. The Popular Meta-margin (defined […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

For the junkies

October 18th, 2012, 6:00pm by Sam Wang

I smell change in the air. Also, polls are much more frequent. For example, the Meta-Margin has been jumping around today, with a bit of a trend toward Obama. So…Andrew F. has added two new daily updates to the Meta-Analysis. The schedule is now: 8AM, 10AM, noon, 3PM, 5PM, 8PM. Neuroscience note: Rewards are most […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

NPR’s Science Friday – this week at 2:15pm ET

October 17th, 2012, 4:00pm by Sam Wang

This Friday at 2:15pm Eastern, I’ll be on National Public Radio’s “Science Friday” with host Flora Lichtman. Nate Silver and I will talk about poll aggregation and the state of the national race. We’ll take calls too. Tune in – or listen here. Update: one topic that may arise is what’s been surprising about this […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

One last look at the Debate #1 bounce

October 17th, 2012, 10:00am by Sam Wang

Just a quick note: one last look at the state poll meta-analysis as of 8AM. Note that an uptick has already started, therefore not caused by Debate2.

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

Debate #2: Obama wins

October 16th, 2012, 11:15pm by Sam Wang

Romney supporters must be disappointed at the lack of a repeat performance. From tax plans to Romney being called out on his Libya falsehood, including by the live audience (a must-watch), President Obama appeared assertive and in charge. Measures of who won: CBS undecided voters: Obama 37%, Romney 30%, Tie 33%. PPP Colorado voters: Obama […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

Advice on looking at national polls

October 16th, 2012, 8:00pm by Sam Wang

Briefly: for now, don’t. I know this is hard. The problem is that the uncertainties are too large. In 4 polls where contacts began after the VP debate, Romney leads in two, Obama leads in two. Going back further, one finds a mix as well, with more Romney polls. But since it seems likely that […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

Bush v. Gore times five

October 16th, 2012, 8:00am by Sam Wang

Are you upset about the fact that the Presidential race is set up to allow the possibility that the candidate with fewer popular votes might still win? For example, Gore won by about 0.5% more votes – yet Bush became President. Depending on specific conditions, this “lumpiness” can help one Presidential candidate or the other. […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · House

The passing storm

October 15th, 2012, 9:00am by Sam Wang

In national polls, the race has swung back three points since the Presidential debate to a narrow Obama lead. This return has been steady over time, and so the role of the VP debate is unclear. Combined with state polls, the data suggest that the effect of Mitt Romney’s performance was an instantaneous jump of […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

Next campaign stop: Not New Jersey

October 14th, 2012, 10:00am by Sam Wang

I started doing poll analysis in 2004 because of an extremely close Presidential race, Bush v. Kerry, in which the candidates traded the lead several times. The effective margin was never greater than 3% in either direction. It seemed critical to get a good read on what all the state polls were telling us. Compared […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

Senate update: downticket cutting loose…or still catching up?

October 13th, 2012, 9:00am by Sam Wang

Up to now, Senate fortunes have tracked the ups and downs of the Presidential race. What about now, after last week’s downturn?

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Tags: 2012 Election · Senate