Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from October 26th, 2012

Ro-mentum watch: John Dickerson, CBS/Slate

October 26th, 2012, 10:45am by Sam Wang

Tweet !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=”//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js”;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document,”script”,”twitter-wjs”);This is like shooting fish in a barrel. The latest, from John Dickerson at Slate: It’s a fool’s game to guess whose momentum is greater. But Romney is peaking at just the right moment. Ah, yes. The Great Election of October 13, 2012. I remember it well. Wait a minute.

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

David Brooks – now with Ro-mentum!

October 25th, 2012, 10:30am by Sam Wang

(Welcome, readers of FiveThirtyEight, Ezra Klein, and Votamatic!) It was fun to learn of David Brooks’s addiction to polling data. He spends countless hours on them, looking at aggregators, examining individual polls, and sniffing poll internals. From all of this, what has he learned? Today, President Obama would be a bit more likely to win. There [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

House: prediction update and GOTV advice

October 24th, 2012, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

Today, Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot, as they have for most of the campaign. However, taking control of the House does not come with a popular vote win, because redistricting and incumbency give a +2.5% advantage to Republicans. Therefore the probability of a change in control is only 18-33%. This is in a zone [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · House

Debate #3: Obama wins

October 23rd, 2012, 10:00pm by Sam Wang

As I wrote yesterday, based on past races (2004, 2008) I expect it to have little effect. The cake is largely baked, in the sense that the last campaign event likely to move the race was Debate #2. However, to the extent that it matters, the consensus is that Obama won. The evidence:

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

Crowdsourcing request: swing district locator

October 23rd, 2012, 6:00pm by Sam Wang

I want to create a tool to help locate swing Congressional districts (CDs) near you. Can you help?

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Tags: 2012 Election · House · Meta-analysis

Ro-mentum!

October 23rd, 2012, 3:30pm by Sam Wang

For new readers (of which there are many!), I make a brief introduction to our highest-value product. The Princeton Election Consortium’s main contribution is to give you a high-quality “thermometer” of exactly where the Presidential race is, based on state polls – and therefore the Electoral College, which is how the Presidency is determined. We [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

Presidential discussion thread

October 22nd, 2012, 3:00pm by Sam Wang

The Meta-Analysis is most sensitive to states with the largest influence in determining the Presidential election outcome. You can monitor your favorite state in the right-hand sidebar under The Power Of Your Vote, which ranks states according to individual voter power. Ohio’s usually near the top. Each entry links to the latest from Pollster.com, our [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

Senate update, October 22: 53 D/I, 47 R

October 22nd, 2012, 10:30am by Sam Wang

Since my last update, the terrain has shifted by about one seat away from Democrats. This may be a coattail effect from the Presidential race. The median outcome is 53 D/I, 47 R (1-sigma confidence interval, 53-54 D/I seats). Retained control by Democrats/Independents is still extremely probable: 98%. The details:

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Tags: 2012 Election · Senate

Anatomy of a bounce

October 21st, 2012, 8:00am by Sam Wang

In the wake of his improved debate performance, President Obama’s recovery is now apparent. It is most clear when viewed in terms of the Meta-Analysis of state polls. Over the last four days, the Popular Vote Meta-Margin – the amount of swing it would take to create an electoral near-tie – has moved by over [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

Welcome NPR listeners!

October 19th, 2012, 1:47pm by Sam Wang

Welcome, Science Friday listeners! (I’m on today, 2:15-2:40pm Eastern with Flora Lichtman and Nate Silver.) Update: That was fun. We got to get into the basics: how news media love to be contrary, the weirdest polls (hello Gallup!) get the most attention, and aggregating polls is really the best approach. If you missed it, you [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President