(original version published on temporary server)
Rick in Miami has helpfully calculated some time series. As has been the case for several months, Democrats/Independents will control 53-55 seats (middle 50% of outcomes) – a change of zero to +2 seats for the Democrats.
Rick has added Pennsylvania and Nebraska, whose races have gotten close. Come to think of it, maybe that’s why Romney is hitting Pennsylvania – boosting downticket races. I don’t think it’s because he has much chance of winning there.
There’s something interesting What’s interesting about this graph is the decrease in Democratic/Independent expected seats in the first two weeks of October. This parallels President Obama’s precipitous drop after Debate #1. Unlike the Obama-Romney EV margin, Senate prospects have fully recovered to pre-debate levels – and then some. What individual race(s) could have done this? The implosion of the Mourdock (R-IN) campaign comes to mind.
(Here is the original comment thread at DailyKos from the temporary site.)