As I wrote yesterday, based on past races (2004, 2008) I expect it to have little effect. The cake is largely baked, in the sense that the last campaign event likely to move the race was Debate #2. However, to the extent that it matters, the consensus is that Obama won. The evidence:
- CBS News instant poll: Obama, 53%. Romney, 23%. Tie: 24%.
- PPP swing states poll: Obama, 53%. Romney, 42%.
- CNN insta-poll of viewers: Obama 48%, Romney 40%.
- The human InTrade: mostly stable.
Ahead are issues like early voting, voter-ID, and possible fraud. Also, don’t forget downticket races. Those will be my topics in the closing days.