Since my last update, the terrain has shifted by about one seat away from Democrats. This may be a coattail effect from the Presidential race. The median outcome is 53 D/I, 47 R (1-sigma confidence interval, 53-54 D/I seats). Retained control by Democrats/Independents is still extremely probable: 98%.
The following seats are relatively uncertain, either because of a small margin or because polls are too few to determine conditions of the race accurately. Margins are median +/- estimated SEM. For the calculation I used all polls since 10/4 or the last 3 polls from Pollster.com, whichever is greater. Statistical leaders are indicated in bold.
- AZ: Carmona (D) vs. Flake (R). R+6.0 +/-4.1% (n=5).
- IN: Donnelly (D) vs. Mourdock (R). R+4.0 +/- 2.1% (n=3).
- MT: Tester (D) vs. Rehberg (R). D+2.0 +/- 0.9% (n=3).
- ND: Heitkamp (D) vs. Berg (R). Tie +/- 6.0% (n=3).
- NV: Berkley (D) vs. Heller (R). R+3.0 +/- 3.4% (n=7).
- VA: Kaine (D) vs. Allen (R). D+1.0 +/- 1.9% (n=11).
The following seats have a clear leader:
- CT: Murphy (D) vs. McMahon (R). D+4.0 +/-1.1% (n=5).
- MA: Warren (D) vs. Brown (R). D+4.5 +/- 3.1% (n=6).
- WI: Baldwin (D) vs. Thompson (R). D+3.5 +/- 0.7% (n=10).
- MO: McCaskill (D) vs. Akin (R). D+6.0 +/- 4.1% (n=5).
At an individual level, knife-edge Senate races are where donations and volunteer efforts would be most effective. Key races are listed at ActBlue (D). Crossroads GPS (R) is likewise strategic in their approach. Show your support!
Finally, let’s try an experiment to control comment overgrowth. If you have something to say, please focus on Senate issues. No Presidential freakouts please!