Briefly: for now, don’t. I know this is hard.
The problem is that the uncertainties are too large. In 4 polls where contacts began after the VP debate, Romney leads in two, Obama leads in two. Going back further, one finds a mix as well, with more Romney polls. But since it seems likely that conditions are changing, interpretation is hard.
Update: To clarify, I have done this myself. Yesterday I detected a shift back from the 10/4-5 peak. However, the variation in national polls makes it hard to get a good read. Better to watch the state level, but this takes patience. You may now resume the flogging.
State polls are far more numerous, and are concentrated where one wants them. If you had to watch anything, I’d say (1) Ohio polls and (2) the meta-analysis in the bar above.
I imagine a flood of polling after tonight’s debate. I’ll miss it – traveling. Comment below.